Municipal Election 2027 in Dangriga – First Preview

The views expressed in this article are those of the writer and not necessarily those of Breaking Belize News.

Dr. Philip Castillo: The most recent data from the Elections Dept show that at the end of July 2026, Dangriga had 5,357 voters. That total can be broken down into four (4) broad groups: (a) PUP voters, (b) UDP voters, (c) Independent Voters, and (d) Non-Voters. While there is a degree of fluidity among these groups, the extent is largely unknown. For example based on my most recent poll of the UDP convention, a respondent who, without any prompting, had categorized herself as a PUP, was planning to vote in the UDP convention because her close relative was a candidate. My poll leading up to the 2025 General Elections in Dangriga found that between 2 to 3% of UDP voters were disgusted with the schism in their party and shifted to being Non-Voters for that election.

I’ve tried to guestimate the size of each of the four broad groups using the most recent existing data available.

Since the recent 2026 UDP municipal convention had 882 voters, that represents 16.5% of the 5,357. Assuming –  for purposes of this essay – that only UDPs vote in a UDP convention, then 16.5% of the Dangriga electorate are UDP.

In the most recent 2024 municipal elections, voter turnout was 51%, hence 49% were non-voters. Again assuming for the purposes of this essay, that there hasn’t been any change, then the non-voting population in Dangriga is recorded at 49%.

So with 16.5% regarded as UDP voters, and 49% being non-voters, the remaining 34.5% represent a combination of PUP voters AND Independents.  To obtain a further breakdown would require going even further back to 2020 PUP General Election convention won by Dr. Zabaneh. At that time, 1,193 of the then voting population of 5,482 or 21.8% voted. To maintain consistency, they are to be regarded as PUP. A bit of statistical gymnastics need to be done here. The 2020 Convention featured voters of the Dangriga general elections constituency, which would include Hope Creek and Sarawee. Voters in these villages do NOT vote in Dangriga municipal elections.  So then, perhaps the only statement that can be definitively made is that the 21.8% as a representation of the PUP base vote in Dangriga alone in 2020 is inflated, though the extent is not known. What is also known is that Dr. Zabaneh won that year’s General Election with 61.7% of the voters. Winning expands the base, so perhaps for this analysis the 21.8% will be maintained.

I am most fully aware of the challenges of using different data sets and across different time periods, but in the absence of updated data, there is scant choice. The voter groupings are known. The percentages obviously need to be tweaked. At this time, I can only hope that this essay spurs one of the many new politicians in Dangriga to provide robust numerical updates.

So then, based on my crude estimates, the four broad groupings in Dangriga are as follows: PUP voters 21.8%, UDP voters 16.5%, non-voters 49% and therefore Independents at 12.7%.

I again wish to reiterate that these percentage groupings are not cast in stone and there is a level of fluidity between and among them. For example, within both the PUP and the UDP, there are base die-hard voters and there are voters who lean towards a particular party but would never consider themselves as a base die-hard voter. Also among the non-voters, there are many who would vote based on family connections, peer encouragement or other reasons including monetary payment.

Assuming that the non-voting percentage remains at 49%, then to win the upcoming Municipal Elections 2027, requires obtaining half of the 51% who will vote. In our first past the post system, the winner will need to obtain just about 26% of the ballots to be cast.

Based on my crude percentages, BOTH parties must realize that their base is insufficient to win. They  must seek the Independents and possibly even among the non-voters. The obvious strategy going into Municipal 2027 is for both parties to firm up and consolidate their base and then seek to target the independents and non-voters.

Who are the Non-Voters and how to target them? My past polls reveal that this cohort includes those whose perception is that both parties are the same. They see no benefits in voting; they are discouraged with the electoral process, are disillusioned with politicians and/or simply indifferent to electoral outcomes.

Actually both political parties already know the non-voters. This is because at every election at every level, the parties have the most recent officially approved voters list. A line is drawn through your name as you vote. Hence at the close of polling, not only is it known who did not vote, more importantly their address is also known. Find them, talk to them and see if you can not only convince them to vote BUT to vote for you.

Who are these independents and how to target them? I would think that they possess an above-average level of education and similarly a higher level of civic engagement. It is this group that does not need to be incentivized to arrive at the voting stations as they consider it their civic duty to vote . It is likely that not only local but also national issues factor into their voting intentions.

Many years ago, politicking in Dangriga was done via the public meeting where in large public places in the town, the parties had their meetings. This method is wonderful for reaching the base. Nearing the actual elections, the size of attendance was a credible gauge of the elections results. However in an era of party branding and political victimization,  perhaps Independents may not want to be seen at any political party public meeting.

Hand in hand with the public meeting, both parties maintain and activate a system of street captains and campaign workers. This provides wonderful opportunities for the candidates to be visible and to subsequently provide pictures to be uploaded on social media. However, given the work schedules of the Independent Voters, they may not be easily accessible.

Fast forward to today where the use of various forms of social media is prevalent in our politicking. While this is excellent for reaching young, social media users, that level of reach may not extend to the older voters who may not be as versed in social media usage.

Therefore, in addition to all the above, the parties ought to rely on statistical and quantitative techniques, including constituent outreach surveys to target reachable voters. An Independent voter – far more than a non-voter – is likely a reachable voter. The Independent voter is a keen observer of local and national events and personalities. He/She takes many variables into consideration as he/she ponders on his/her voting decision. He/she isn’t likely to be swayed by campaign rhetoric and grandiose promises.  He/she has the best interests of Dangriga – broadly defined – at heart and ultimately votes for the person/candidate that can best deliver the most positive future for Dangriga.

This analysis posits that at least 12.5% of the voters in Dangriga are Independent Voters. In actuality, I think the percentage is substantially higher. Many Independents could have shifted into the non-voting category for multiple reasons. And my loose definition of a PUP or UDP voters likely includes many Independent minded voters. I think a main reason why elections are NOT won on election day is that sometime before actual election day, most Independent Voters have already firmly decided their voting preference.

As both parties gather at the starting gate for the seven month race to March 2027, the party that is more efficient at strategically targeting the Independent Voter will have the distinct advantage.

Dr. Philip Castillo is a development economist and an independent pollster. Send comments to pjcastillobz@gmail.com

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