LIVE: Weather system forecast to be a ‘short-lived’ tropical depression

8.30am, 13 August

Weather forecasters have said a tropical wave moving toward the eastern Caribbean is likely to develop into a “short-lived” tropical depression in the next 48 hours.

In its 8am forecast, the National Hurricane Center said the chance of cyclone formation within the next two days is 80% – the same as the forecast for development over the next seven days.

Showers and thunderstorms are showing signs of organisation in the weather disturbance which is now located about 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

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“The system will likely become a short-lived tropical depression within the next day or two as it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic,” the forecast read.

“However, by late Friday the system is likely to move into a region of strong upper-level winds and dry air, which should end its opportunity to develop.”

The weather centre advised residents in the eastern Caribbean to monitor the progress of the storm as gusty winds and areas of heavy rain are possible on Friday night and Saturday.

A second tropical wave a few hundred miles south-south-west of the Cabo Verde Islands, forecast to follow a more northern route than the first, is producing disorganised showers and thunderstorms.

“Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend,” the forecast said.

It now has a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours and a 50% chance in the next seven days.

Anguilla’s Department of Disaster Management has not yet issued any notice on either of the weather systems.

10am, 12 August

A tropical wave tracking toward the Caribbean is now likely to develop into a tropical depression within the next 48 hours, weather forecasters predict.

In its 8am forecast, the National Hurricane Center increased the likelihood of cyclone formation within the next two days to 80%.

The weather disturbance featuring shower and thunderstorm activity is now located about 900 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands and is moving west to west-northwestward.

“Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression will likely form,” the forecast read.

The system appears to currently be tracking slightly south of Anguilla, but it is too early to determine whether the system will affect the island.

A second tropical wave off the coast of west Africa, forecast to follow a similar route to the first, is producing disorganised showers and thunderstorms.

It has a 20% chance of developing into a tropical depression in the next 48 hours and a 30% chance in the next seven days.

Anguilla’s Department of Disaster Management has not yet issued any notice on either of the weather systems.

8.30am, 11 August

An area of low pressure tracking toward the northeast Caribbean is highly likely to develop into a tropical depression in the next seven days, according to weather forecasters.

In its 8am forecast, the National Hurricane Center increased the probability of cyclone formation in the next week from 60 to 70% and in the next 48 hours from 20 to 30%.

The weather disturbance which is moving westward to north-westward is now located about 500 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Shower and thunderstorm activity is limited.

“Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression will likely form during the latter part of this week,” the forecast read.

While it is too early to determine whether the system will affect Anguilla, residents are advised to monitor the progress of the disturbance.

Anguilla’s Department of Disaster Management has not yet issued any notice on the weather system.

1pm, 10 August

An area of low pressure travelling across the Atlantic is likely to develop into a tropical depression within the next week, according to weather experts.

In its 8am forecast, the National Hurricane Center reported that the disturbance located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganised showers and thunderstorms.

As the weather system moves slowly westward to north-westward across the central tropical Atlantic, it is expected to merge with a tropical wave currently over west Africa in “a couple of days”.

“Environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for development by midweek and a tropical depression could form in the latter part of this week,” the forecast read.

It said there is a 20% chance of a tropical depression forming within 48 hours, increasing to 60% over the next seven days.

While it is too early to determine whether the system will affect Anguilla, residents are advised to monitor the progress of the system.

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Anguilla’s Department of Disaster Management has not yet issued any notice on the weather system.

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring two additional disturbance in the Atlantic – neither of which, at this stage, are expected to impact Anguilla.

Atlantic hurricane season runs from June to November, with peak season from late August to early October.

The Department of Disaster Management advises the public stay connected through its official WhatsApp channel. Click here for more information.

Information on how to prepare for a hurricane is available from the US National Weather Service here.

A list and map of hurricane shelter locations can be found on the Anguilla Red Cross site here.

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