Texas Redistricting Effort Could Backfire On Republicans

Texas’ redrawn congressional map largely banked on maintaining gains with Latino voters who are increasingly turning against the GOP.

Sep 28, 2026 - 22:50

Texas Redistricting Effort Could Backfire On Republicans

Texas senate redistricting vote SED Texas senate redistricting vote SED — Source: Austin American-Statesman/Hearst Newspapers / Getty

Last year, Texas triggered the nationwide redistricting battle at President Donald Trump’s behest. As the midterm election approaches, Texas’ new congressional map may backfire on Republicans.

You love to see it.

According to PBS, the Texas redistricting effort largely banked on the GOP maintaining the gains they made with Latino voters in the 2024 election. There’s just this small, growing problem that Latino voters are increasingly turning against the Republican Party. PBS News spoke to Mario Guerrero, a member of the South Texas Builders Association and a three-time Trump voter.

“Right now, if you’re a Republican candidate, at least in South Texas, a lot of the people that I speak to, which are business owners, if you have the stamp of a Republican on you, it doesn’t look very good,” Guerrero told PBS.

Raul Guajardo is a three-time Trump voter from McAllen, Texas, who told Reuters that Trump’s handling of the economy has had him double-thinking his vote. Despite steady incomes, he and his wife are currently living paycheck to paycheck because of rising prices.

“I used to be a conservative, far-right,” Guajardo told Reuters. “I’m more open than ever before to vote Democrat.”

Guajardo doesn’t appear to be alone in this feeling. A poll from Cook Political and TelevisaUnivision found that Latinos in Texas favor Democrat candidates over their Republican opponents by a 2-1 margin.

One thing that I can’t help but roll my eyes at is Latino voters being surprised at the indiscriminate immigration raids by the Trump administration. The administration told you off jump what they wanted to do, and nothing about Trump’s history suggests he knows how to do anything with nuance. Guerrero told PBS that while he wanted stronger borders, he wasn’t prepared for the economic impact the indiscriminate immigration raids would have.

“I think that the enforcement that has been placed by this administration has gone way above and beyond that we — anybody ever expected,” Guerrero told PBS. “When you have fear, and you can’t get people to show up to job sites to do work, it affects the whole wheel of the economy when it comes to construction.”

What makes this even funnier (to me at least) is how hard the state legislature fought for this new map. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott called a special session after the devastating Kerr County floods, and flood relief took a backseat to redistricting.

The redistricting effort ultimately led state Democrats to leave the state to prevent the map from passing. State Republicans even went so far as to hold state Rep. Nicole Collier as a political prisoner in the state House after she refused to be followed by police.

Adding to the comedy, California triggered a redistricting effort designed to neutralize the gains made in the Texas map. So, at the end of the day, Texas redistricting may have created more competitive districts in the state and also led to five new Democratic seats at the national level.

Republicans won the redistricting battle, yet it’s increasingly likely that they could lose control of both the House and Senate. Let this be a lesson: if a political party wants to win elections, the best bet is to pursue policies that benefit voters, not just draw maps to its advantage.