12 districts at risk of twin threat of drought, floods

The Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services (Met) has named 12 districts at risk of facing the twin threat of severe drought and extreme rainfall during the 2026/27 farming season.

In a statement issued yesterday, Met’s district-specific risk report mentioned Ntcheu, Mangochi, Balaka, Neno, Mwanza, Blantyre, Phalombe, Mulanje, Thyolo, Chiradzulu, Chikwawa and Nsanje as the most vulnerable districts as a strong-to-very-strong El Nino develops over the tropical Pacific Ocean.

The report said the districts will face moderate dry spells, severe drought conditions and a high risk of extreme rainfall, requiring authorities to prepare for both water shortages and flooding.

Reads the report: “[The districts should] implement integrated drought-and-flood contingency plans, pre-position agricultural inputs and water resources ahead of the dry spells while establishing early warning systems for extreme rainfall and flooding.”

Met has also classified Machinga and Zomba as high-risk districts because they are expected to experience severe drought but face a lower risk of extreme rainfall.

On the other hand, most districts in the Central Region are projected to experience moderate drought conditions with flood risk ranging from low to severe, while districts in the Northern Region were assessed as having the lowest overall risk.

Met director Lucy Mtilatila said in an interview yesterday the report was shared with district councils to support planning.

She said the assessment indicates what is likely to happen in the 2026/27 season based on how previous strong El Nino events affected the country.

“We will produce a seasonal forecast next month which will provide a full picture of how the upcoming El Nino event will affect Malawi,” said Mtilatila.

Department of Disaster Management Affairs commissioner Wilson Moleni said the government is finalising a national El Nino preparedness plan that will guide sector responses, set out funding requirements and outline resource mobilisation.

Meanwhile, agriculture expert Leonard Chimwaza described the district-specific assessment as timely, saying councils should use it to help farmers make informed decisions before the planting season.

Climate prediction centres estimate that there is more than an 80 percent chance of a strong-to-very-strong El Nino developing, with a 24 percent probability that it could exceed the 2015/16 event, the strongest recorded since 1982.

In the 2023/24 farming season, El Nino-induced drought forced the government to declare a State of Disaster in 23 of the country’s 28 districts.

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