Caribbean Travel Is Up 21 Percent This Hurricane Season, According to a New Report

Caribbean resorts are entering one of the most value-driven stretches of the year, airlines are trimming fares on select routes, and travelers appear increasingly willing to take advantage.

New sales data from insurance portal Squaremouth shows Caribbean travel during the current hurricane season is running 21 percent ahead of last year, a notable increase during a part of the calendar traditionally associated with softer demand across the region.

The increase comes as travelers weigh lower fall prices against a 2026 Atlantic hurricane forecast that calls for fewer storms than an average season. Colorado State University’s latest outlook projects nine named storms, four hurricanes, and one major hurricane this year.

Squaremouth expects Caribbean demand to remain elevated through the fall as lower airfares and resort rates give travelers another reason to consider September, October, and November trips.

Caribbean Travel Is Running 21 Percent Ahead of Last Year

The headline number is the clearest indication of how strongly travelers are responding to the Caribbean this year: Squaremouth says travel to the region during hurricane season has increased 21 percent compared with the same period last year.

Hurricane season officially runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, placing a large part of the Caribbean’s late-summer and fall travel calendar inside the Atlantic storm season.

The period has historically delivered some of the year’s lowest resort rates, particularly after the summer travel rush and before the December holiday season.

This year, those prices are arriving alongside a hurricane outlook considerably quieter than the historical Atlantic average.

Colorado State University is forecasting nine named storms, including four hurricanes, with one expected to become a major hurricane of Category 3 strength or higher.

The historical Atlantic average is approximately 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

NOAA has also projected a season centered below normal, with a 55 percent probability of below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity, according to its seasonal outlook.

Storm forecasts remain forecasts, and a quieter overall season does not eliminate the possibility of an individual hurricane affecting a Caribbean destination. The current projections nevertheless give travelers a different set of conditions to consider as they look at fall trips.

Why Fall Caribbean Trips Can Cost Less

The period from late August through much of the fall frequently brings some of the Caribbean’s lowest hotel prices of the year.

Many resorts use seasonal rates during September and October, particularly across islands where summer demand from families drops after schools reopen and the winter high season has yet to begin.

Airlines can offer attractive fares during the same period as passenger demand falls from summer peaks.

The result can be a very different Caribbean vacation budget from what you might encounter over Christmas, New Year’s, Presidents Day weekend, or spring break.

A beachfront resort room priced at a premium during February can carry a substantially lower rate in September or October. The difference becomes particularly significant at larger luxury resorts, all-inclusive properties, and hotels where high-season room prices rise sharply.

Travelers appear increasingly willing to use the fall calendar to take advantage.

Squaremouth’s 21 percent year-over-year increase suggests hurricane season is drawing a larger share of Caribbean trips even before the region reaches its traditional winter peak.

A Different Hurricane Outlook in 2026

The 2026 forecast adds another element to the fall travel picture.

Colorado State University initially projected 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes for the Atlantic season. Forecasters subsequently lowered those numbers as atmospheric conditions changed.

The latest projection calls for nine named storms, four hurricanes, and one major hurricane.

Developing El Niño conditions are among the primary reasons forecasters expect reduced Atlantic activity. El Niño commonly increases upper-level winds across portions of the tropical Atlantic, conditions that can disrupt tropical cyclone development.

The forecast remains well below the Atlantic averages of roughly 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

NOAA’s broader range calls for eight to 14 named storms, three to six hurricanes, and one to three major hurricanes, with the agency assigning the greatest probability to a below-normal season.

An individual storm can still develop quickly and affect an island even during a quiet season. Hurricane activity also reaches its climatological peak during September, keeping weather conditions relevant for anyone traveling during the fall.

The lower overall projections, however, arrive during the same period when Caribbean hotels and airlines frequently offer some of their most competitive prices.

Where Fall Value Shows Up Across the Caribbean

The Caribbean’s fall travel calendar varies considerably from one destination to another.

Some resorts close temporarily for annual maintenance during September or October. Others remain open and reduce room rates substantially. Larger destinations with year-round air service and extensive hotel inventories generally provide the widest selection.

Destinations including Aruba, Curaçao, Barbados, Jamaica, the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, The Bahamas, St. Maarten, and the Cayman Islands continue receiving travelers throughout the fall.

Aruba and Curaçao are especially popular during hurricane season because of their southern locations, although tropical weather can affect any part of the wider Caribbean basin.

In Jamaica and the Dominican Republic, the breadth of the resort market can produce particularly aggressive fall pricing, including at all-inclusive hotels where food, drinks, entertainment, and many activities are included in the room rate.

Puerto Rico adds extensive nonstop air service from the continental United States, while St. Maarten serves as a gateway for trips that can include nearby islands such as Anguilla and St. Barth.

The Bahamas can be one of the easiest fall Caribbean trips from Florida and several major East Coast gateways, with Nassau and Paradise Island offering a large year-round hotel inventory.

Different islands also follow different seasonal calendars, so restaurant hours, resort renovations, ferry schedules, and temporary hotel closures can vary during September and October.

The Fall Caribbean Trip Is Becoming More Popular

Peak Caribbean travel has traditionally concentrated around the winter months, when cold weather across the United States and Canada drives travelers south.

Fall has always offered a different proposition.

Beach resorts have fewer guests. Restaurant reservations can be easier to secure. Hotel rates frequently drop. Airfare can decline after Labor Day. Popular beaches and attractions can be noticeably quieter than they are during the winter holidays.

The latest Squaremouth numbers indicate more travelers are now taking advantage of those conditions.

A 21 percent increase in Caribbean travel compared with last hurricane season represents a substantial year-over-year jump, particularly during a period often viewed primarily through the lens of weather risk.

The current storm forecast may be helping change the calculation.

Instead of looking exclusively at December through April, more travelers appear to be examining the Caribbean calendar month by month and comparing hotel rates, airfares, flight schedules, and weather forecasts.

September and October can produce significant differences in vacation cost, particularly for travelers whose schedules allow them to avoid school holidays and peak winter weeks.

What To Expect Through the Rest of Hurricane Season

The Atlantic hurricane season continues through Nov. 30, leaving several months in which both travel demand and tropical weather can change.

September remains the historical peak for Atlantic hurricane activity, while tropical systems can continue forming through October and November.

At the same time, fall represents the final stretch before Caribbean hotel prices generally begin climbing toward Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Year’s, and the winter high season.

Squaremouth expects the current travel increase to continue as airlines and resorts adjust prices during the heart of hurricane season.

The 21 percent rise over last year already shows travelers are responding.

With a quieter Atlantic forecast, lower seasonal hotel prices, and fall airfares appearing across the region, more travelers are choosing hurricane season for their Caribbean vacation — and the traditional Caribbean off-season is getting considerably busier.

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