East African Community Trade performance hits USD 46.3 billion in the first quarter of 2026

The East African Community posted a strong trade performance in the first quarter of 2026, with total trade rising to US$ 46.3 billion as the region sustained robust growth in International Merchandise Trade.

According to the latest EAC Quarterly Statistics Bulletin for January, February and March 2026, total trade increased by 30.7 percent to USD 46.3billion in the first quarter of 2026.

That is from US$ 35.4 billion recorded in the same quarter of 2025.

Export earnings grew faster than imports, rising by 33.3 percent to US$ 24.0 billion, while imports expanded by 28.1 percent to US$ 22.4 billion.

Consequently, the region’s trade surplus widened to US$ 1.6 billion, up from US$ 0.6 billion a year earlier.

According to the EAC Quarterly Statistics Bulletin, Africa remained the community’s biggest trading partner, accounting for 24.1 percent of total trade, with trade flows to the Southern African Development Community (SADC) registering notable growth.

China retained its position as the region’s leading individual trading partner, supported by strong demand for EAC mineral exports and increased imports of manufactured and industrial goods.

Trade with Africa grew by 17.8 percent to US$ 11.2 billion, while SADC trade expanded by 17.4 percent to US$ 7.0 billion.

The EAC exports continued to be concentrated in mineral commodities, particularly copper and precious metals, while agricultural products such as coffee, tea and other key commodities remained important contributors to export earnings, supported by improved global demand and favorable commodity prices.

Other key trading partners included the United Arab Emirates, South Africa, India and Japan, underscoring the region’s growing integration into global trade networks.

On the import side, petroleum products, machinery, transport equipment and industrial supplies continued to support economic recovery, infrastructure development and industrial activity across the region.

Overall, the EAC’s trade outcomes in the first quarter of 2026 reflect a resilient and steadily improving regional economy, with stronger export growth, a widening trade surplus and sustained continental trade ties pointing to continued progress toward deeper regional integration and long-term, sustainable growth.

Inflationary Pressures

The EAC Quarterly Statistics Bulletin shows that inflationary pressures remained significantly lower than the levels recorded a year earlier, despite a modest month-on-month uptick in March 2026.

The Annual Headline (Year-on-year) Inflation in the EAC region, as measured by the EAC Harmonized Consumer Price Index (EAC-HCPI), stood at 10.6 percent in March 2026, up from 9.2 percent registered in February 2026. A year earlier, in March 2025, the rate was 27.0 percent. 

The annual average headline inflation for the 2025 calendar year stood at 22.9 percent, up from 13.5 percent recorded for the 2024 calendar year. This increase was mainly due to the high levels of inflation registered in the Republics of South Sudan and Burundi, which stood at 114.7 percent and 33.9 percent respectively.

Core (underlying) inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, stood at 6.2 percent in March 2026, up from 5.9 percent registered in February 2026, but significantly lower than 28.9 percent recorded in March 2025.

According to the Bulletin, the annual average Core (Underlying) inflation for the 2025 calendar year stood at 21.2 percent, up from 15.0 percent recorded for the 2024 calendar year, mainly reflecting high inflation in South Sudan and Burundi.

Food inflation stood at 10.7 percent in March 2026, up marginally from 10.5 percent in February 2026, but markedly lower than 49.4 percent recorded in March 2025.

Energy, Fuel and Utilities inflation rose to 9.9 percent in March 2026 from 8.0 percent in February 2026, compared to 3.3 percent recorded a year earlier. The annual average Food inflation for 2025 stood at 39.9 percent, while the annual average Energy, Fuel and Utilities inflation stood at 6.5 percent.

Monetary Developments and Credit Growth

On monetary conditions, the EAC Quarterly Statistics Bulletin notes that interest rate developments across EAC Partner States in the first quarter of 2026 were broadly aligned, with most Partner States recording a decline in 91-day Treasury bill rates.

Rwanda was the only exception, posting an increase of 70 basis points.

According to the Bulletin, lending rates remained relatively stable in the majority of Partner States, while deposit rates decreased in most Partner States.

Interest rate spreads varied across the region, with South Sudan recording the highest spread at 15.9 percent, while Tanzania recorded the lowest spread at 6.8 percent.

The Bulletin shows that broad money supply (M3) grew by 16.4 percent year-on-year in Q1 2026, supported mainly by growth in credit to the private sector, which increased by 14.0 percent.

Net Foreign Assets increased by 26.0 percent, indicating improved external positions.

In value terms, broad money reached US$ 102.5 billion in Q1 2026, while credit to the private sector rose to US$ 72.4 billion.

Net credit to the Central Government increased by 9.0 percent year-on-year, while net credit to public non- financial corporations contracted by 30.0 percent, reflecting shifts in the composition of domestic credit.

The EAC Quarterly Statistics Bulletin is compiled by the EAC Secretariat in collaboration with National Statistics Offices and Central Banks of the Partner States.

It provides harmonised data on inflation, trade, money supply and other key macroeconomic indicators to inform policy and planning.