Energy expert warns Tinubu to suspend $27 billion Nigeria–Morocco gas pipeline before it becomes an economic disaster

The president of Nigeria, Bola Tinubu, is facing calls from prominent energy analyst Dan Kunle (who served as Senior Technical Adviser to the Minister of Energy for Gas during the creation of the 2007–2009 Nigerian Gas Master Plan) to pause commitments on the proposed $25 billion Nigeria–Morocco Gas Pipeline.

• Energy analyst Dan Kunle urges President Tinubu to pause commitments on the $25 billion Nigeria–Morocco Gas Pipeline.
• Kunle argues the project risks becoming a national liability and urges focus on meeting domestic gas and energy needs.
• Kunle warns that legal, regulatory, and financial complexities across multiple countries could jeopardize the pipeline’s reliability.
• He recommends a thorough strategic review, emphasizing the need for an independent national gas plan.

Officially known as the African Atlantic Gas Pipeline, the megaproject requires an immediate strategic freeze, according to the former policy adviser.

In a public advisory, Kunle warned that the initiative currently lacks a strong business case and could easily turn into a massive national liability.

He urged the administration to prioritize domestic power and industrial gas demands before funding ambitious transcontinental export infrastructure.

Missing milestones

The warning comes shortly after ECOWAS member states endorsed the pipeline through a new Intergovernmental Agreement.

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Despite this political support, the project reportedly lacks critical milestones: a dedicated operating company, committed investors, and a final investment decision.

While Nigeria sits on more than 200 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves, Kunle noted that untapped underground gas does not solve everyday local power shortages.

Crossing through more than a dozen West African nations creates major legal, regulatory, and financial hurdles.

In an open letter reported by Premium Times, Kunle cautioned:

"A pipeline of almost 7,000 kilometres is only as strong as its weakest treaty, weakest jurisdiction, and weakest financial participant."

Prioritizing local industry over raw exports

Beyond diplomatic risks, the financial burden remains a core concern. Funding a project of this scale requires clear agreements on who pays the upfront costs and who covers losses if participating nations default.

According to Kunle, Nigeria should avoid repeating past mistakes made in the oil sector, where raw resources were exported while refined products had to be imported at high costs.

His concern appears to be well-founded, revealing a sharp paradox in Nigeria's current economic strategy.

Just days after joining Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, and Cameroon in a regional accord (which prompted President Tinubu to officially ban the export of raw cocoa beans to force local processing and industrialization), the administration continues to push forward with a transcontinental pipeline designed to export raw, unprocessed natural gas.

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As reported by Premium Times, he stated:

"“Nigeria has already spent decades exporting crude oil while importing refined petroleum products.”

He later added that “We must not repeat that error by exporting gas as a raw material while importing products that could have been produced with that gas at home.”

He believes that using natural gas locally to power homes and fuel industries (such as steel and fertilizer manufacturing) creates far more value for the domestic economy than simply shipping raw gas abroad.

Calls for a review

To protect the nation's economic interests, Kunle recommended that the Presidential Petroleum Reform and Value Optimisation Taskforce conduct a thorough review of the pipeline's commercial viability.

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In his concluding remarks published by Premium Times, he urged the administration to establish clear priorities:

"The government should first publish an independent national gas plan showing how Nigeria will supply its power stations, industries, and other national obligations over the coming decades. Only gas that is genuinely surplus, developed, and commercially available should be considered for new long-term exports."