Nigeria's national treasury awaits an additional ₦6.8 trillion in oil revenue, but fuel prices remain high
Amid renewed volatility in global energy markets driven by the Israel–Iran conflict, Nigeria is expected to benefit from higher crude prices, with a new BMI projection estimating an additional ₦6.8 trillion in oil revenue in 2026.
Black News 
Amid renewed volatility in global energy markets driven by the Israel–Iran conflict, Nigeria is expected to benefit from higher crude prices, with a new BMI projection estimating an additional ₦6.8 trillion in oil revenue in 2026.
- Nigeria is expected to gain an extra ₦6.8 trillion in oil revenue in 2026 due to higher crude prices from the Israel–Iran conflict.
- Average oil prices are projected to rise to $78 per barrel, boosting Nigeria’s GDP by around 1%.
- Nigeria’s GDP growth forecast for 2026 was raised from 4.3% to 4.4% because of stronger oil sector performance.
- Despite higher government revenue, domestic petrol prices have surged 40-50%, meaning limited immediate relief for citizens.
The outlook, published by BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, links the windfall to an expected rise in average oil prices to about $78 per barrel, up from roughly $67 before the escalation in tensions.
The report adds that the increase could contribute around 1% to Nigeria’s GDP, offering a notable boost to fiscal inflows at a time of heightened economic pressure.
BMI also revised upward Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast in its latest Sub-Saharan Africa market assessment, citing stronger-than-expected support from the oil sector.
Nigeria's economy fluctuates amid Middle East crisis
Prior to the recent oil price increase, Nigeria's GDP growth forecast was pegged at 4.3%, but it has now been revised upward to 4.4%.
While the surge has increased the revenue flowing into the national treasury, it has come at a higher cost for Nigerian citizens.
The crisis in the Middle East has impacted the prices of several commodities, and since the conflict began, the domestic price of petrol in Nigeria has risen by 40% to 50%. Consequently, the increase in government revenue may not translate into immediate relief for the public.
The report has forecasted that the impact of the oil price increase on inflation will likely be temporary. The report praised the relatively stronger Naira for helping to mitigate the inflationary effects.
It was also explained that the Nigerian economy is not as severely impacted by the Middle East disruptions as some other nations, especially when compared to fuel price spikes in other Sub-Saharan African countries.
The removal of the fuel subsidy has allowed the increase in international fuel prices to result in significantly higher earnings for the Nigerian government.
The estimated ₦6.8 trillion gain is considered a modest projection. Experts from the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) suggest that if the Israel-Iran crisis continues or escalates further, the windfall could potentially bring an additional ₦30.2 trillion to the Nigerian treasury.
Victor Awogbemila
