Antigua and Barbuda’s inflation forecast among highest in Eastern Caribbean

by Staff Writer
Antigua and Barbuda is projected to record one of the highest inflation rates in the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union this year, with consumer prices expected to rise by an average of 3.6 per cent, compared with the currency union’s forecast of 2.8 per cent. This is according to the International Monetary Fund’s October 2026 World Economic Outlook.
The country shares the highest projected rate with St Kitts and Nevis among the six independent currency union members listed in the report. Its forecast is up from estimated average inflation of 1.4 per cent in 2025, signalling faster price increases for consumers.
The IMF projects inflation of 2.9 per cent in St Lucia, 2.7 per cent in both Dominica and St Vincent and the Grenadines, and 1.7 per cent in Grenada in 2026. Antigua and Barbuda’s forecast is 0.8 percentage points above the currency union average and 1.9 percentage points above Grenada’s.
The figures measure changes in consumer prices rather than the overall cost of living in each country. A higher inflation rate does not necessarily mean Antigua and Barbuda has the region’s highest prices, but indicates that its average prices are expected to rise faster than those in several neighbouring economies.
For households, faster inflation can reduce purchasing power when wages, pensions and other income fail to keep pace. The effect on individual families will depend on their spending patterns and which goods and services become more expensive.
The IMF expects Antigua and Barbuda’s inflation rate to ease to 3.1 per cent in 2027, although that would remain above the currency union’s projected average of 2.5 per cent. St Kitts and Nevis is forecast to record inflation of 3.2 per cent next year, followed by Antigua and Barbuda at 3.1 per cent, St Vincent and the Grenadines at 2.6 per cent, St Lucia at 2.5 per cent, Grenada at 1.8 per cent and Dominica at 1.1 per cent.
A decline in inflation would mean prices rising more slowly, rather than returning to earlier levels.
The report does not provide a country-specific explanation for Antigua and Barbuda’s projected price increases or identify which categories of household spending are expected to drive them. Its broader assessment of Latin America and the Caribbean highlights the uneven effects of higher energy costs, with importing economies facing pressure while some commodity exporters benefit.
The Fund also warns that prolonged disruption in the Middle East could keep energy and food prices elevated and intensify inflationary pressures.
In its international analysis of cost-of-living crises, the IMF recommends temporary assistance targeted at vulnerable households, arguing that such support can protect purchasing power at a lower fiscal cost than broad measures intended to suppress prices. Those findings are general policy recommendations rather than an assessment of Antigua and Barbuda’s existing relief measures.
The higher inflation forecast comes as the IMF projects Antigua and Barbuda’s economic growth will slow from an estimated 3 per cent in 2025 to 2.4 per cent this year, before reaching 2.5 per cent in 2027.