Donald Trump hands South Africa a major trade win

South Africa has dodged a major trade bullet after US President Donald Trump signed legislation extending the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) for another two years.

The extension keeps the preferential trade programme in place until 31 December 2028, despite months of uncertainty over its future – and repeated threats that South Africa could be excluded.

The two-year extension passed through Congress without substantive policy changes, providing much-needed certainty for exporters across sub-Saharan Africa.

South Africa was facing the AGOA axe

The future of AGOA had been increasingly uncertain since Trump returned to the White House.

At various stages, the administration appeared ready to either overhaul the programme or restrict access for individual countries.

South Africa’s inclusion was particularly vulnerable.

A group of US lawmakers previously urged Trump to remove Pretoria from AGOA, while US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said in December that he was open to “different treatment” for South Africa, describing the country as a “unique problem”.

That raised fears that South African exporters could lose preferential access to one of the country’s most important international markets.

Congress keeps AGOA alive

Those fears have now been put on hold.

The US Senate approved the extension before the House of Representatives followed suit this week.

Trump has now signed the legislation into law.

Republican Congressman Jason Smith, who represents Missouri’s 8th Congressional District, welcomed the extension, describing AGOA as the foundation of America’s trade relationship with sub-Saharan Africa for more than two decades.

“AGOA promotes greater economic stability and opportunity across Africa while advancing America’s strategic and national security interests, including access to critical minerals and more secure supply chains,” Smith said.

A win for exporters – for now

The extension comes after months of delays and uncertainty surrounding the future of the programme.

There had been speculation that the Trump administration could make sweeping changes to America’s trade relationship with Africa.

However, other trade battles – particularly those involving China and, more recently, Canada – have dominated the administration’s attention.

For African exporters, the result is a valuable dose of certainty.

AGOA was established in 2000, giving eligible African countries preferential, largely duty-free access to the US market in an effort to promote economic growth, investment and stronger trade ties.

The programme has since become an important pillar of US-Africa economic relations.

What happens next?

The extension does not necessarily mean the AGOA debate is over.

The Trump administration is still expected to examine ways of reshaping America’s trade relationship with Africa.

But for now, exporters have breathing room.

With AGOA secured until the end of 2028, the programme – and the countries currently covered by it – are effectively protected for most of Trump’s current term in office.

For South Africa, the immediate threat of being kicked out of AGOA has been pushed down the road.