El Nino funding gap threatens response

Malawi faces a two-year El Niño response with too little money and most of it likely to arrive too late, a report has shown.

The International Food Policy Research Institute (Ifpri) said in a July 2026 policy note that about $190 million (K329.4 billion) could be mobilised by 2028, mostly from the World Bank.

But it worried that only a fraction will be available upfront, and it can only be accessed once drought impacts are verified—likely around February to March 2027.

“If funding flows are triggered only once drought impacts become verifiable… they will need to sustain response efforts beyond the initial shock,” the note by Jan Duchoslav, Andrew Jamali, Grace Kumchulesi and Joseph Nagoli read. “Focusing resources on the initial shock would be risky, as it could leave insufficient support for the most severe phase… in the first quarter of 2028.”

The warning comes as Malawi’s disaster financing remains weak.

In April 2024, former president Lazarus Chakwera appealed for $447 million for that year’s El Niño response.

By May, only a fifth had been pledged. In March 2025, Department for Disaster Management Af-fairs (Dodma) said it was yet to raise the full $446 million required.

For 2026/27, government has allocated K590 million to disaster risk management. But IFPRI noted most of it is for travel and office operations, leaving just K114 million for actual interventions.

Of the potential $190 million, the most accessible money sits in the World Bank’s Regional Emer-gency Preparedness and Inclusive Recovery (Repair) project.

But because Repair must cover shocks until 2030, the institute said drawing it all down now “would leave Malawi exposed to subsequent crises.”

Other options include the World Bank’s Social Support for Resilient Livelihoods Project and a sov-ereign drought policy with African Risk Capacity, which is still under negotiation.

Ifpri said the crisis is worsened by high fuel and fertiliser costs driven by the domestic macroeco-nomic situation and the Middle East conflict.

“High fuel prices… raise the cost of traded food and other goods almost immediately. Ongoing fertiliser supply issues and the impending El Niño will impact next year’s harvest,” it stated.

The Department of Climate Change and Meteorological Services has listed 12 districts at highest risk for 2026/27, including Ntcheu, Mangochi, Balaka, Neno, Mwanza, Blantyre, Phalombe, Mu-lanje, Thyolo, Chiradzulu, Chikwawa and Nsanje.

There is an 80 percent chance of a strong-to-very-strong El Niño, with a 24 percent chance it could exceed the 2015/16 event. In 2023/24, a similar drought forced government to declare a State of Disaster in 23 districts.

Ifpri said Malawi must shift “from reactive disaster response to a proactive resilience agenda” aligned to Malawi 2063 and the National Resilience Strategy.

Dodma spokesperson Lucy Bandazi said a multisectoral team is finalising a preparedness plan next week. The Ministry of Agriculture did not comment.

Parliamentary Committee on Natural Resources chairperson Tiaone Hendry said disaster funds must be ring-fenced.

“The CDF [Constituency Development Fund] has two percent for disasters. We need to increase that. This is cheaper than late emergency appeals,” she said.

Horace Phiri said Malawi must “work with what is available” and invest in early warn-ing and drought-resistant crops. “Even if we had all the money, are we sure it would be used for the intended activities?” wondered the Lilongwe University of Agriculture and Natural Resources agricultural economist.

In May this year, President Peter Mutharika ordered early preparedness, with Minister of Agricul-ture, Irrigation and Water Development Roza Mbilizi saying government was promoting growing of cassava and sweet potato, among other coping measures.

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