Here’s the latest diesel price forecast for June 2026

South African motorists could finally get some relief at the pumps in June after months of punishing fuel price hikes, with the latest data pointing to significantly lower diesel prices and only modest petrol increases.

Figures from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) suggest fuel recoveries have stabilised notably compared to the extreme volatility seen in April and May, when geopolitical tensions and soaring oil prices triggered some of the steepest increases in years.

Petrol Increases Expected to Stay Relatively Small

If current trends hold through month-end, petrol motorists may see only marginal increases in June:

• Petrol 93: expected increase of around 11 cents per litre
• Petrol 95: expected increase of around 18 cents per litre

While still increases, they are far below the sharp hikes motorists absorbed in recent months and reflect improving stability in international fuel markets.

Diesel Users Could See Significant Relief

Diesel motorists and transport-reliant industries stand to benefit the most.

Current recoveries indicate:

• Diesel 0.05%: over-recovery of approximately R4.64 per litre
• Diesel 0.005%: over-recovery of approximately R3.75 per litre
• Illuminating paraffin: expected decrease of about R4.66 per litre

The possible reductions follow a period in which diesel prices surged by almost R13 per litre across April and May, driven by elevated global oil prices and supply concerns linked to Middle East tensions.

Why the Outlook Has Improved

Analysts say two major factors are helping stabilise the fuel outlook.

First, the rand has remained relatively resilient despite global uncertainty, trading mostly around R16.50 to the US dollar and avoiding sustained weakness beyond R17/$.

Second, oil prices have settled into a narrower range above $100 per barrel, easing some of the volatility that previously pushed local fuel prices sharply higher.

However, the outlook remains fragile.

Ongoing tensions involving Iran and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz continue to unsettle global energy markets, while the International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that global oil inventories are declining rapidly and supply could remain constrained until at least October.

Updated: Fuel Levy Relief to Be Reduced in June

One major development since earlier projections is government’s confirmation that temporary fuel levy relief will begin to phase out in June.

The relief, introduced in April and extended through May to cushion consumers against soaring prices, will be halved from 3 June.

This means:

• Petrol levy relief will reduce from R3.00 to R1.50 per litre
• Diesel levy relief will reduce from R3.93 to R1.96 per litre

Government has also confirmed that the temporary relief measures are scheduled to end completely in July 2026, unless further intervention is announced.

Fuel Price Mechanism Under Review

In another recent development, the Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources has confirmed it is reviewing South Africa’s fuel price formula, a process that could eventually change how local fuel prices are regulated.

What Motorists Can Expect

Based on the latest projections, June is still shaping up to be a considerably better month than April or May – especially for diesel users.

But economists warn that another oil surge above $120 per barrel, fresh geopolitical disruptions, or renewed rand weakness could quickly reverse the gains.

The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources is expected to announce the official June fuel price adjustments at the end of the month, with new prices taking effect in early June.

Latest forecast

Below, the latest projections for June 2026 as received by The South African website from the Central Energy Fund (CEF):

If the market conditions were to remain consistent for the remainder of the month – an unlikely scenario with the rand/dollar exchange rate fluctuating and the oil price ever changing – an increase of 11 cents per litre is expected for petrol 93 octane motorists and an increase of 18 cents for 95 users is anticipated.

Meanwhile, diesel motorists would see something between a 375 and 464 cents per litre decrease.

Finally, illuminating paraffin is expected to drop by 466 cents in price.

FUEL PRICE IN SOUTH AFRICA IMPACTED BY TWO MAIN FACTORS:

1. The international price of petroleum products, driven mainly by oil prices

2. The rand/dollar exchange rate used in the purchase of these products

Oil price

At the time of publishing the brent crude oil price is $110.32 a barrel.

Exchange rate

At the time of publishing the rand/dollar exchange rate is R16.64/$.

The final overall price changes for both petrol and diesel will be confirmed later in the month with the new prices taking effect at midnight on Tuesday, 2 June.

Current May 2026 petrol and diesel prices (Inland and Coastal):