Latest petrol price forecast after the long weekend

Global energy markets remain under severe pressure as disruption in the Strait of Hormuz continues, with the ongoing United States naval blockade of Iranian-linked shipping keeping one of the world’s most vital oil corridors in prolonged uncertainty.

The strait, which normally handles about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, has seen traffic collapse dramatically in recent weeks.

According to international shipping and satellite tracking data, daily vessel transits have fallen sharply, with only limited and tightly monitored crossings still taking place.

Several tankers have reportedly been turned back, while others are rerouting or delaying voyages altogether.

Shipping disruption drives up costs

The prolonged standoff has placed enormous strain on global supply chains.

Major shipping operators are increasingly evaluating alternative routes around the Cape of Good Hope to bypass the Gulf, adding thousands of nautical miles, higher fuel consumption and longer delivery schedules.

Insurance premiums for vessels operating in or near the Gulf have surged due to elevated geopolitical and security risks.

This has significantly raised shipping costs, tanker rates and global supply chain expenses – all of which are now feeding directly into higher energy prices.

Industry analysts warn that if the disruption persists, maritime logistics and fuel transport costs could remain structurally elevated for months.

Oil markets remain volatile

Oil prices have continued their upward march.

Brent crude has now surged above $110 per barrel, with analysts increasingly forecasting a prolonged period of elevated prices if diplomatic deadlock continues.

Goldman Sachs and other market watchers have raised projections, with some severe scenarios suggesting prices could approach $120 to $125 per barrel.

Although Iran has floated proposals to reopen shipping lanes under certain conditions, uncertainty around nuclear negotiations and enforcement terms has prevented markets from fully pricing in a resolution.

Broader geopolitical risks

Iran has condemned the blockade as piracy and continues to warn of retaliation, while the United States has maintained a hardline stance.

The risk of escalation now extends beyond shipping routes to regional oil infrastructure, export terminals and broader Gulf stability.

With OPEC+ spare production capacity limited in the near term, global markets remain highly vulnerable to further shocks.

South Africa faces mounting pressure

For South Africa, the fallout is becoming increasingly concerning.

As a fuel-importing economy, South Africa is especially vulnerable to:

• Rising crude oil prices
• Increased shipping and insurance costs
• Rand volatility
• Potential supply chain bottlenecks

Current indicators suggest widening fuel under-recoveries, making notable petrol and diesel price hikes in upcoming monthly adjustments increasingly likely.

Economists warn that sustained higher fuel prices could ripple through the broader economy by:

• Increasing transport and logistics costs
• Driving food inflation
• Raising business operating expenses
• Placing further pressure on already strained household budgets

Fragile outlook

Diplomatic channels remain open, but negotiations appear deeply fragile.

For now, even partial disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is enough to keep global energy markets on edge, with elevated oil prices increasingly becoming the new baseline rather than a temporary spike.

For South African consumers and businesses, this means the consequences may soon be felt not only at fuel stations, but across transport, food prices and broader inflationary pressures.

Latest forecast

Below, the latest projections for May 2026 as received by The South African website from the Central Energy Fund (CEF):

If the market conditions were to remain consistent for the remainder of the month – an unlikely scenario with the rand/dollar exchange rate fluctuating and the oil price ever changing – an increase of 177 cents per litre is expected for petrol 93 octane motorists and an increase of 209 cents for 95 users is anticipated.

Meanwhile, diesel motorists would see something between a 542 and 543 cents per litre increase.

Finally, illuminating paraffin is expected to rise by 460 cents in price.

FUEL PRICE IN SOUTH AFRICA IMPACTED BY TWO MAIN FACTORS:

1. The international price of petroleum products, driven mainly by oil prices

2. The rand/dollar exchange rate used in the purchase of these products

Oil price

At the time of publishing the brent crude oil price is $111.34 a barrel.

Exchange rate

At the time of publishing the rand/dollar exchange rate is R16.59/$.

The final overall price changes for both petrol and diesel will be confirmed later in the month with the new prices taking effect at midnight on Tuesday, 5 May.

April 2026 petrol and diesel prices (Inland and Coastal):