The Caribbean Is Doing Far Better in 2026 Than Everybody Expected – And Travelers Are Actually Flocking

After the euphoria that dominated much of the post-pandemic period in the Caribbean hotel industry, 2025 was something of a mixed bag. 

Tourist arrivals rose by about 2.5 percent, according to recent Caribbean Tourism Organization data. 

And hotel occupancy, for example, was down for just about all of last year, according to data from STR.  Indeed, hotel occupancy declined for nine consecutive months beginning in March of 2025. 

And even many regional observers seemed to suggest that this year would be, well, not that sizzling. 

And then something happened in December, under the radar.

I remember that Barbados’s Grantley Adams International Airport in particular had an exceptionally busy day in mid-December, even before the festive season.

Then I noticed that hotel occupancy in the Caribbean had bucked the trend in December, rising by 0.9 percent — in other words, positive territory. 

And then things started heating up. 

What We’re Seeing 

Hotel occupancy in January was 71.4 percent — up by 1.5 percent over January 2025. The next month? 76.5 percent, a 2.6 percent climb. And last month, March 2026, saw hotel occupancy at 79 percent — a 6.5 percent jump over the same period last year — and high than in any single month in 2025. And higher than in any month in 2024. Or in 2023. Or even in 2022. 

That is to say – March was a really, really good month for Caribbean hotels — and the some 2,000 hotels that are covered in STR’s data survey. 

And it’s been borne out in some of the numbers from Caribbean destinations that have been reporting their first quarter data. 

The Cayman Islands, for example, is off to a huge start this year, with a more than 10 percent increase in visitors in February alone. Jamaica welcomed more than 1 million visitors in the first quarter (although the island rarely shares the breakdown of cruise versus stay over, unfortunately). 

Barbados, for its part, is also seeing very strong numbers.

What it all means is that something has changed, tangibly, in Caribbean travel, and the overall data is pointing towards a very good start to this year. 

What’s Changing 

So what is it that has actually changed? I think it’s a few factors. Clearly, even starting in December, traveler demand was starting to rise — mirroring the kind of Caribbean love affair we saw in the early days of the post-Covid boom. 

The Cuba Effect 

Another huge shift? The Canadian market, and Cuba. Canada has, for years, been the number one source market for tourism to Cuba. If you’ve been following things south of Florida, you know that in early February, Canadian airlines stopped flying to Cuba, in large part because there was little to no jet fuel in Cuba to return to home. 

But Canadian travel demand obviously didn’t disappear — and Canadians have accordingly shifted their travel to other destinations across the Caribbean. To return to the Cayman example, the Cayman Islands has seen double-digit increases in Canadian travel for each of the last four months — and this is a trend that has clearly been showing up in other Caribbean destinations. 

Mexico, Too

What happened in Puerto Vallarta in February certainly scared off a number of travelers who had been considering visiting Mexico, and that reluctance to visit Mexico has continued since, with travelers still scared off by perceptions of crime. For years, the Mexican Caribbean remains the top international favorite of American travelers (just look at all the new flights that keep getting added to Cancun) — and are travelers who are now looking for an alternative — one that is equally tropical and equally easy to get to.

What Else Is Happening

The Iran War has also pushed travel closer to home — both for security and pricing reasons. Flights are more expensive overall, and shorter flights are obviously less expensive than longer flights. That means

It all adds up to a favorable cocktail for the Caribbean — one that should give the region confidence as the second quarter continues. The hotels and destinations that aren’t seeing that kind of growth simply need to go out there and get out there — it’ s not because travel is down. It’s a question of effort, storytelling and, well, good old fashioned marketing.

The travelers are out there, they’re looking for their next vacation, and it’s time for the Caribbean to take advantage. 

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