When South Africa Shakes, Lesotho Trembles

…from Phala Phala to rising xenophobia, South Africa’s domestic crises are becoming regional challenges with profound implications for Lesotho’s political and economic stability…

Thuso Donald Mosabala

Political Analyst

The Republic of South Africa is once again entering a period of political uncertainty; a development the Kingdom of Lesotho cannot afford to ignore. In recent months, renewed attention surrounding the “Phala Phala” scandal involving President Cyril Ramaphosa, combined with growing anti-immigrant protests in parts of South Africa, has signalled deeper tensions within the country’s politics and society.

The Constitutional Court in South Africa recently reopened the path for impeachment proceedings linked to the “Phala Phala” controversy, a scandal centred on foreign currency hidden at Ramaphosa’s game farm.  At the same time, anti-immigration movements such as “Operation Dudula” and “March and March,” have intensified protests against undocumented migrants, leading to renewed xenophobic attacks.

For Lesotho, these developments are not merely South African problems unfolding across the border. They have direct political, economic, and social consequences because Lesotho’s fortunes remain deeply tied to developments in Pretoria.

As an enclave surrounded by South Africa, Lesotho remains heavily economically dependent on its neighbour. A significant share of Lesotho’s imports, employment opportunities, customs revenues, and remittances come directly from South Africa. Research has further shown that Lesotho relies heavily on South African trade and labour markets, making it vulnerable to shocks originating there. This structural dependence means that whenever South Africa experiences political instability, policy uncertainty, or economic decline, Lesotho inevitably feels the effects.

The “Phala Phala” controversy is particularly significant because it reflects broader institutional and political tensions within South Africa. The African National Congress (ANC), once electorally dominant, has been weakened by corruption scandals, factionalism, and declining public trust.

This became particularly evident during the 2024 elections, when the ANC was forced into a coalition-style arrangement. The reopening of the impeachment discussions against President Ramaphosa further deepens uncertainty around governance and leadership succession within South Africa. These political developments carry implications beyond South Africa’s domestic governance landscape.

For Lesotho, prolonged instability in South Africa creates economic risks. Investors often view Southern Africa as a closely linked regional market. Political uncertainty in South Africa can reduce investor confidence across the region, including in Lesotho’s mining, textile, and manufacturing sectors. This is especially dangerous at a time when Lesotho is already facing economic vulnerability linked to declining trade preferences and external market shocks.

The anti-immigration protests unfolding in South Africa may have even more immediate implications for ordinary Basotho citizens. Lesotho has historically depended on labour migration to South Africa, particularly in mining, agriculture, domestic work, and informal trade. However, the rise of anti-immigrant sentiment increasingly threatens foreign African nationals, including Basotho migrants.

Lesotho through its High Commission in South Africa warned its citizens to remain cautious amid rising xenophobic violence in South Africa. This matters because migration between Lesotho and South Africa is not simply economic; it is deeply social and historical.

Thousands of Basotho households depend on remittances from relatives working in South Africa. If xenophobic politics continue to grow, Basotho workers may face greater discrimination, reduced employment opportunities, or even forced displacement. Such developments would place additional pressure on Lesotho’s already struggling economy and high unemployment levels.

Beyond the economic implications, South Africa’s internal political shifts also influence Lesotho’s governance trajectory. Pretoria has historically played a decisive role in Lesotho’s political crises, whether through mediation efforts, regional diplomacy, or security interventions under the Southern African Development Community (SADC). South Africa has often acted as the principal regional stabiliser during periods of coalition collapse, military tensions, or constitutional disputes in Lesotho.

However, a South Africa increasingly consumed by its own domestic crises may become less willing or less capable of sustaining this stabilising role. A politically distracted Pretoria could weaken regional conflict-prevention mechanisms and reduce diplomatic attention toward Lesotho’s governance challenges. This creates risks for a country that has experienced recurring political instability, fragile coalition governments, and institutional tensions over the past decade.

At the same time, Lesotho must avoid approaching South Africa merely as a source of threats. South Africa’s political transitions may also create opportunities for institutional reflection and reform within Lesotho itself. The decline of one-party dominance in South Africa demonstrates the growing importance of accountability, coalition governance, and institutional resilience in African democracies.

Lesotho can draw important lessons from South Africa’s evolving political landscape, particularly regarding anti-corruption reforms, judicial independence, and public trust in governance institutions.

The broader lesson is clear: Lesotho cannot continue relying excessively on South Africa while remaining vulnerable to every political and economic tremor across the border. Diversification is no longer optional. Lesotho must strengthen domestic production, expand export markets, create local employment opportunities, and reduce overdependence on remittances and customs revenues tied to South Africa.

Equally important is the need for a more strategic foreign policy. Lesotho should deepen regional and international partnerships beyond Pretoria while maintaining constructive bilateral relations with South Africa. Geography may be permanent, but structural dependency does not have to be absolute.

Ultimately, South Africa’s political shifts are not isolated developments. They are regional events with regional consequences. Whether it is the Phala Phala scandal, coalition instability, or anti-immigrant protests, the message for Lesotho is unmistakable: when South Africa shakes, Lesotho trembles too. The challenge for Maseru is not simply to observe developments in Pretoria, but to build enough political and economic resilience to withstand them.

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