Why do so many Gambian politicians cross over to the Nafoolo Pisirr Pasarr (NPP)? A theory worth thinking about.

By Capt. (Rtd.) Ebou Jallow

Every election season it happens again. Opposition figures we thought were committed to their party suddenly show up in the ruling party’s colors. Some people call it betrayal; others call it “bringing development to the constituency” and some even have the audacity to justify their odious behavior by invoking the “national interest”. But what if it’s more about how our political system is built than about individual characters?

The idea: “Elite Overproduction”

Peter Turchin is a researcher who studies why societies become unstable. He argues that trouble starts when more people are competing for power and status than there are positions to go round.

When that happens:

– Competition among the political class becomes fierce and personal

– Ideas and party programs matter less than access

– Those left out either fight the system or join whoever controls it

Why this fits The Gambia

– More people are competing. Every year more graduates come out of UTG and universities abroad, more diaspora professionals return home, and more former officials look for a comeback. Since 2017, new parties have multiplied.

– The prestigious positions in the society are few. There are about 58 National Assembly seats, around 20 ministries, and a limited number of ambassadorships, governorships and posts on the boards of state companies. And with a small private sector, government is the main route to status and opportunity.

– The President controls most if not all elite positions in the country- directly or indirectly. Our 1997 Constitution gives the President very wide power to appoint people. Being in opposition can mean being shut out completely.

So when an opposition politician thinks their party may not win, as Essa Nafoolo Faal claimed in a recently leaked audio recording, crossing over can look like the only realistic way to stay in the game.

Crossing over is the other side of the coin

Turchin’s structural-demographic theory in his works “Secular Cycles”, “Ages of Discord”, and “End Times” mostly describes how left-out elites become rebels. In The Gambia, many of them are absorbed into the ruling party instead – a sociopolitical phenomenon since the Gambia gained independence in 1965.

However, since 2017:

* The 2016 Coalition fell apart and the NPP was formed, giving people a new party to move to

*A faction of the APRC allied with the NPP before the 2021 election

* Defections from other parties have continued ahead of the December 2026 election

Is this good or bad?

In the short term, it can reduce tension because fewer frustrated politicians are outside the system. But in the long run … it :

• Makes government more expensive as more positions and allowances are created to reward people

• Weakens parties as places for real ideas and policy debate

• Leaves the people who aren’t absorbed angrier, resentful and dangerous to society. This new opposition is often younger and outside the traditional parties.

Look at our neighbor Senegal. Ousmane Sonko was a tax inspector who could not find a place in the old system. Instead of being absorbed, he built a movement that won power in 2024 rupturing the political system in place since the 1960s. That is the other path Turchin describes.

The bigger question for us:

If politics is the main way to succeed in The Gambia, crossing over will keep happening, whoever is in power. Real change may require:

– A stronger private sector, so talented people have opportunities outside politics

– Limits on presidential appointment powers

– Parties built on ideas, not just access

What do you think? Is crossing over a betrayal of voters, a dignified career move, or a sign that our system needs reform?

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