Future currency will be education, skills and trust

BEIJING: TRAVEL, whether for business, leisure or research is an important opportunity for learning.

But the real value of travel lies not simply in what we see, but in what we learn from it and how that knowledge changes our perspective, improves our decisions and strengthens our ability to act.

Recent discussions at a strategic conference on development in China offered precisely such an opportunity for reflection.

One message stood out: China’s development story is increasingly moving beyond the traditional measures of infrastructure, manufacturing, technology and exports toward a less visible but potentially more important asset, human capability.

The central lesson is that the value of a modern economy depends not only on how much money, infrastructure or technology it possesses, but increasingly on what its people can do with them.

People who can learn, acquire new skills, innovate, collaborate and work within trusted institutions may ultimately constitute a country’s most valuable economic asset. For Africa and particularly Tanzania, this provides an important reason to study China strategically.

The objective should not be to imitate China’s policies, which were developed under very different historical and institutional circumstances, but to understand the underlying logic of its economic transformation.

The central question is no longer simply how much capital a country can attract. It is increasingly what its people can do with that capital.

The World Bank defines human capital as the knowledge, skills, health and experience that enable people to be productive.

Its 2026 Human Capital Index Plus indicates that gaps in nutrition, education and workplace skills are associated with substantial losses in future labour earnings in low- and middle-income countries.

For African policymakers, including those in Tanzania, this should be an important warning. China’s first lesson is that education should be viewed not merely as a social service, but as an economic investment.

For many years, development policies largely treated education as a cost: governments-built schools, employed teachers and expanded enrolment because education was seen primarily as a social responsibility.

China’s development experience increasingly demonstrates another dimension. Education is also a foundation for economic transformation.

Moving from agriculture to manufacturing, from manufacturing to advanced industries, or from imitation to innovation requires continuous improvements in the skills and capabilities of the population.

Research on China’s development experience by the World Bank has shown how sustained economic growth and job creation increased demand for education and training.

At the same time, agricultural reforms and export-oriented industrialisation helped move labour into more productive non-farm sectors.

The lesson for Tanzania and Africa is clear: Education policy must be connected to economic strategy.

If a country wants to build an industrial economy, its education system must produce technicians, engineers, managers, artisans, entrepreneurs and other specialised professionals. If it wants to build a digital economy, it must develop digital capabilities.

If it wants to modernise agriculture, farmers need access to knowledge, technology, finance and business skills.

The focus, therefore, should not be only on how many graduates a country produces, but on what economic transformation those graduates are capable of facilitating. Skills are becoming more important than certificates.

My experience at Kashi University in Xinjiang reinforced another important lesson: Skills increasingly matter as much as, and in some circumstances more than, certificates.

A university degree demonstrates that an individual has completed a particular programme of study.

It does not necessarily demonstrate that the person can solve complex problems, operate advanced machinery, analyse data, manage projects or build a successful enterprise.

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The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) recent evidence from the Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIAAC) shows a positive relationship between adult skills and labour productivity.

At the same time, skill-job mismatches can contribute to productivity gaps and reduce the effective use of human capital. This is particularly relevant to Africa, where the paradox of educated unemployment remains a serious challenge.

Countries can simultaneously experience growing numbers of university graduates and shortages of technicians, engineers, digital specialists, artisans and other practical skills.

China’s experience demonstrates the importance of maintaining a close relationship between education and industry. OECD analysis of China points to significant progress in education while also highlighting the continuing need to upgrade skills as the country moves toward higher-value production and innovation.

The deeper implication for Africa is that education systems should move beyond a model focused primarily on producing job seekers and increasingly develop people capable of solving problems, producing goods and services, creating enterprises and innovating.

The most valuable skill may be the ability to learn. The currency of the future will also be the ability to learn.

Technology is changing too rapidly for any education system to teach people everything they will need throughout their working lives.

Artificial intelligence, automation, robotics, digital finance, biotechnology and advanced manufacturing are changing occupational requirements at an accelerating pace.

As a result, one of the most valuable capabilities may ultimately be the ability to acquire new skills continuously.

China’s experience illustrates the importance of this process of upgrading. Its earlier growth was heavily dependent on laborintensive manufacturing.

As wages increased and competitive conditions changed, China progressively moved toward higher-value manufacturing, technology and innovation.

The principle is important for Africa to understand: Development is not a destination. It is a continuous process of improvement.

A worker trained today should have the capacity to learn again tomorrow but education and skills alone are not enough.

There is another asset that is less visible but equally important: Trust. Trust is the invisible infrastructure of an economy. It is often overlooked in discussions about economic development.

Yet, every economy depends on people’s trust in institutions, contracts, financial systems, employers, regulators and one another.

An entrepreneur invests with the expectation that the rules will remain reasonably predictable, a bank lends money expecting contracts to be honoured, while an investor commits capital believing that policies and regulations will not change arbitrarily and a citizen pays taxes with the expectation that public resources will be managed responsibly.

When trust is weak, the costs of economic interaction rise.

Businesses seek additional guarantees. Banks become more cautious. Investors demand higher returns to compensate for perceived risks. Citizens may become less willing to cooperate with public institutions.

The OECD has highlighted the importance of trust to social and economic wellbeing, social cohesion and resilience, particularly in the effectiveness of policymaking and implementation.

Trust, therefore, should be understood not simply as a moral virtue, but as an economic asset. Education, skills and trust form a development triangle There is also an important relationship between education and trust.

OECD research suggests that education can strengthen cognitive and analytical capabilities associated with interpersonal trust.

Other research points to links between education and confidence in institutions and other people.

This creates what might be called a development triangle: Education generates knowledge. Skills turn knowledge into productivity.

Trust transforms individual capabilities into collective economic activity. Without education, people may lack the knowledge needed to develop capabilities.

Without relevant skills, education may not translate into productivity. And without trust, capable people and institutions may struggle to cooperate effectively.

This is why China’s lesson for Africa goes beyond building more schools or increasing education budgets. The challenge is to build a comprehensive human-capital ecosystem.

Early childhood development should nurture cognitive and social capabilities, while schools should strengthen literacy, numeracy, science and critical thinking.

Vocational institutions should align training with real industry needs, universities should become stronger centres of research, innovation and problem-solving and companies should provide opportunities for workplace learning.

Another thing is for governments and the private sector ensure they establish credible systems for skills accreditation and lifelong learning.

China’s experience is not without challenges China has not solved every human-capital challenge.

OECD analysis identifies issues including demographic ageing, a shrinking workforce and the need for continued reforms to sustain productivity growth.

These challenges themselves reinforce the importance of human capital. As economies change, their people must change with them.

This is particularly urgent for Africa, whose population is expanding rapidly and remains comparatively young.

That demographic growth could become a major economic advantage, or create significant development pressures.

Much will depend on whether young Africans acquire relevant knowledge, practical skills and confidence in the institutions around them.

Trust should be treated like infrastructure Trust should therefore become an explicit development-policy objective.

African governments could think of institutional trust almost as a form of infrastructure. Countries invest in roads because roads reduce economic distance.

They invest in electricity because reliable energy reduces production constraints.

They should also invest in institutional trust because trust reduces the invisible costs of economic interaction.

Building that trust requires predictable policies, transparent public procurement, reliable regulation, professional public institutions, effective justice systems and credible accountability.

Political parties and political institutions also have a responsibility. Trust takes time to build but can be quickly weakened when promises are repeatedly disconnected from implementation.

The future political economy will increasingly depend not only on what governments promise, but on what institutions consistently deliver.

The real asset is people The final lesson from my engagement with professionals, professors and investment bankers during the Urumqi conference, held from September 5 to 9, 2026, is that Africa’s greatest asset and Tanzania’s in particular, is its people.

A country’s long-term competitiveness ultimately depends on the quality of its people and institutions.

Physical infrastructure can be imported, machines can be purchased, capital can cross borders and technology can be licensed.

But the capacity to understand, adapt, innovate, manage, cooperate and build trust must ultimately be developed within society.

That is why the strategic question for Africa, and especially for Tanzania, should not be limited to:

How much capital can we attract from development partners or domestic sources?

The deeper question is: What kind of people, skills and institutions do we need to develop so that every unit of capital generates significantly greater value?

That may be one of the most important lessons China offers the developing world. The future’s currency will not be money alone.

It will be knowledge, skills, adaptability and trust, the human capabilities that determine how effectively a society converts capital and opportunity into lasting economic progress.

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