Somalia angry as Ethiopia refuses to intervene in South West State conflict

MOGADISHU (Somaliguardian) – Somalia’s federal government is furious with Ethiopia for refusing to intervene in the conflict in South West State, where Mogadishu lost five strategic towns in a week to the forces of former state leader Abdiasis Laftagaren.

Mogadishu asked the commanders of Ethiopian troops in Somalia to join the fighting between its forces and Laftagaren’s troops, and to take its side. The federal government removed Laftagaren from power by force in March.

It specifically asked the Ethiopian troops to defend the major towns they have garrisoned for more than a decade. Laftagaren’s forces retook those five towns last week with little to no resistance.

The Ethiopian commanders stated explicitly that their mandate does not extend to involvement in a political conflict between Somali stakeholders and elites contesting power. The response has angered Somali government officials, who are now considering their next move.

Ethiopia Also Rejects Egyptian Forces and Turkish Base

Ethiopia’s military also refused to let Mogadishu bring Egyptian forces into South West State, or establish a Turkish military base in the parts of Bay and Bakool regions under Ethiopian control.

Apparently angered by these refusals, Parliament Speaker Abdulkadir Mohamed Nur called on the federal government to hold Ethiopian forces accountable for not defending the towns Laftagaren’s forces have recently captured.

Ethiopian Troops’ Mandate and Past Political Assistance

Ethiopian forces entered Somalia in the early 2010s to fight Al-Shabaab, under both a bilateral agreement and an African Union peacekeeping mission. Aiding Mogadishu in political conflicts has never been part of their mandate, although they have sometimes helped the authorities in Mogadishu on political matters, including the arrest of Mukhtar Robow in 2018.

Talks Between Somalia’s President and Abiy Ahmed Collapsed

Last month, the Somali president met Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed to urge him to help defeat Laftagaren’s forces. The two sides had earlier appeared close to an agreement, but the talks collapsed when President Mohamud travelled to Egypt the same week.

In Egypt, he attended a meeting with the leaders of Egypt and Eritrea, two arch-rivals of Addis Ababa. The meeting produced a communiqué that was in some way sharply critical of Ethiopia.

Mogadishu Accuses Ethiopia, UAE and Al-Shabaab of Plotting

Since then, Mogadishu has used its social media influencers and affiliated media outlets to accuse Ethiopia, the United Arab Emirates and Al-Shabaab of plotting together to defeat it in South West State. It alleges that all three are fighting alongside Laftagaren’s forces to topple the regional administration it installed after its March offensive, in which it ousted Laftagaren and his administration.

Ethiopia and Kenya Neutral, but Mogadishu Angry With Both

Ethiopia and Kenya both appear to be taking a neutral stance in Somalia’s political power struggle. Mogadishu is angry with both for not cooperating when it needed them, and for not helping it remove its domestic opposition, a goal in which neither country sees a national security interest.

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