Top 10 African countries most dependent on oil from the Strait of Hormuz

Several African economies remain heavily exposed to volatility in global oil markets due to their reliance on imports sourced through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints.

• Several African economies are highly vulnerable to global oil market volatility due to heavy reliance on imports through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Disruptions in this key waterway can lead to rising fuel costs and inflation, impacting public finances and essential services.
• Over 65 out of 75 vulnerable global economies depend on oil imports, with small economies and islands facing the highest risks.
• A 50% rise in oil prices could increase fragile economies' fuel import costs by over $20 billion annually, straining budgets and widening deficits.

Any disruption in the narrow waterway can quickly ripple through global supply chains, pushing up fuel costs and exposing import-dependent economies to sudden shocks.

For many African countries, particularly smaller and more open economies, this dependence is not abstract. It translates directly into fuel import bills, inflation pressure, and tighter fiscal conditions when global prices rise.

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According to data from the UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD), several African states source a significant share of their oil imports from the Hormuz region, leaving them vulnerable to volatility in one of the world’s most sensitive energy corridors.

Beyond Africa, the exposure is even broader. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could place vulnerable economies globally at the frontline of an energy shock. Of 75 economies - including least developed countries (LDCs) and small island developing States (SIDS), 65 rely on imported oil, making them particularly sensitive to price spikes.

In these countries, higher energy costs force difficult trade-offs between financing fuel imports and funding essential public services such as healthcare, education, and infrastructure. UNCTAD estimates that such pressure could affect nearly one billion people worldwide, deepening existing structural vulnerabilities in already fragile economies.

Without mitigation measures or greater energy diversification, such shocks risk reinforcing long-standing structural weaknesses in import-dependent economies, particularly those with limited fiscal space and heavy reliance on external fuel supply chains.

The data highlights a striking concentration of dependence among small island economies and landlocked states, where limited domestic production and refining capacity forces reliance on imported refined petroleum products routed through global trading hubs linked to the Gulf.

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Seychelles stands out as the most exposed, with near-total reliance on Hormuz-sourced oil imports. Mauritius and Tanzania also show high exposure levels above 50%, showing the vulnerability of tourism-driven and import-reliant economies to external energy shocks.

Rising costs and structural vulnerability

The implications of this dependence extend beyond supply security. UNCTAD estimates that a 50% increase in oil prices linked to supply disruptions could raise the global import bill for vulnerable economies by more than $20 billion annually.

Of this, least developed countries would absorb roughly $16.1 billion in additional costs, while small island developing states would face about $4.3 billion in extra pressure.

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For African economies in the dataset, higher fuel import bills risk widening fiscal deficits, increasing transport and electricity costs, and constraining public investment.

In economies where energy imports already account for a significant share of foreign exchange expenditure, such shocks can quickly translate into inflationary pressure and slower growth.

The findings underscore a broader structural challenge: while global energy markets remain tightly linked to the Strait of Hormuz, many African economies have yet to achieve meaningful diversification in supply sources or energy resilience.