Dangote’s proposed $15 billion Kenya refinery enters critical stage as Ruto pushes towards groundbreaking

Kenyan President William Ruto says the country is ready to break ground on a planned $15 billion refinery in Lamu, after meeting Dangote Industries President and CEO Aliko Dangote and Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) CEO Samaila Zubairu in New York.

• Kenya plans to begin construction of a $15 billion oil refinery in Lamu, following talks between President William Ruto, Aliko Dangote, and Africa Finance Corporation.
• The refinery, expected to process 700,000 barrels per day, aims to boost East Africa's energy security and create jobs.
• The project location shifted from Tanzania and then Mombasa to Lamu, leveraging the LAPSSET corridor and proximity to the Indian Ocean.
• Kenya currently imports most of its refined petroleum, with the Lamu refinery intended to reduce regional dependence on imports.

Ruto said the talks, held on the sidelines of the 81st United Nations General Assembly, focused on financing and final preparations for the project.

“We are ready to break ground on the East Africa refinery in Lamu,” Ruto said in a post on X on September 21.

He said the refinery would strengthen East Africa’s energy security, increase local value addition, create jobs and strengthen regional supply chains.

The planned 700,000-barrel-per-day facility is expected to break ground on September 30, according to Kenyan government-linked reports.

From a regional refinery plan to Dangote’s Lamu project

The project has evolved significantly since it was first proposed earlier this year.

In April, Ruto said East African countries were discussing a regional refinery at Tanzania’s Tanga port to process crude from Kenya, Uganda, South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

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Dangote, who attended the infrastructure financing meeting where Ruto made the announcement, later expressed interest in developing the project, saying he was prepared to replicate his Nigerian refining model in East Africa.

The proposed location subsequently shifted to Kenya. Dangote initially considered Mombasa before selecting Lamu, where the project would benefit from access to the Indian Ocean and the wider Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport (LAPSSET) corridor.

Dangote has estimated the refinery could cost between $15 billion and $17 billion, with Reuters most recently reporting a $15 billion-$16 billion estimate.

The project would also revive Kenya’s refining ambitions more than a decade after its Mombasa refinery stopped processing crude in 2013.

The old refinery struggled financially and efforts to secure funding for a major upgrade collapsed. Kenya eventually took full ownership of the facility after buying Essar Energy’s 50% stake in 2016.

Kenya has since relied heavily on imported refined petroleum products. The country spent about 511.5 billion Kenyan shillings ($4 billion) on petroleum products in 2025, according to Reuters.

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The new Lamu refinery is intended to serve Kenya and neighbouring East African markets, potentially reducing the region’s dependence on imported refined fuel.

Financing now takes centre stage

Ruto’s latest meeting with Dangote and AFC comes as the project moves closer to construction.

The financing structure remains critical, particularly given the scale of the investment. Dangote has previously indicated that the project could involve a combination of internal funding, debt and equity.

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The project also faces questions over crude supply because Kenya currently produces relatively little oil. Proposed feedstock could come from regional producers including Uganda and South Sudan, although transporting crude to Lamu would require additional infrastructure.

For Ruto, the immediate focus is now on turning the project from a long-discussed regional ambition into a construction project.

His latest talks with Dangote and AFC signal that financing and execution are now at the centre of that push.