In Mogadishu, fear grows of a return to Somalia’s violent political past

MOGADISHU (Somaliguardian) – As Somalia edged toward another political precipice, opposition leaders in Mogadishu on Monday announced plans for a fresh wave of demonstrations on May 16, one day after the constitutional mandate of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is set to expire, deepening fears that the Horn of Africa nation could once again slide into a dangerous confrontation over power and legitimacy.

The announcement came amid mounting tensions in the Somali capital after security forces thwarted an opposition-led protest planned for Sunday, deploying thousands of troops across Mogadishu in an extraordinary show of force that effectively sealed off large sections of the city overnight.

The failed demonstrations had initially been organized to protest what opposition figures described as the forced displacement of hundreds of thousands of residents from neighborhoods in Mogadishu, where homes were demolished and land allegedly transferred to influential businessmen and politically connected elites. Opposition leaders accused the Somali federal government of overseeing an aggressive campaign of evictions that had stripped vulnerable families of their homes and livelihoods.

In an effort to avoid being cornered by security forces, senior Somali opposition politicians dispersed across various districts of the capital ahead of Sunday’s planned rallies, intending to lead demonstrations from multiple locations simultaneously. But authorities moved swiftly. Armored vehicles surrounded residences where opposition figures were staying, while heavily armed Somali soldiers established roadblocks and barricades made of large stones across key intersections, effectively placing opposition politicians under de facto house arrest.

By dawn, Mogadishu resembled a city under siege.

The demonstrations largely failed to materialize on the scale organizers had envisioned, though sporadic protests erupted in several neighborhoods. Witnesses reported that Somali security forces used live ammunition to disperse crowds, leaving at least one person dead and several others wounded. The violence revived memories of previous political crises in Somalia, where disputes over elections and constitutional mandates have repeatedly pushed the fragile state toward armed confrontation.

Yet the Somali opposition now appears determined to escalate the pressure.

Leaders aligned with the opposition coalition said the planned May 16 protests would carry far greater political significance because they would occur after the expiration of the president’s constitutional term. By then, they argued, the administration would no longer possess the legal legitimacy to wield executive authority, framing the demonstrations not merely as political dissent but as resistance to what they view as an unconstitutional extension of power in Somalia.

Some opposition figures signaled a more confrontational posture, warning that supporters would defend themselves if attacked by Somali security forces during future rallies, rhetoric likely to heighten anxiety in Mogadishu, a city already tense with uncertainty over Somalia’s political future.

The growing standoff has drawn increasing international concern, particularly from the United States, which has issued stern warnings against the use of force on peaceful demonstrators in Somalia. Washington has repeatedly urged Somali political stakeholders to resolve their differences through dialogue, warning that a descent into violence could damage Somalia’s international standing and strain partnerships with foreign allies whose financial and security support remains vital to the country’s survival.

Diplomatic efforts to avert a deeper Somali political crisis are now intensifying behind the scenes.

According to Somali political figures familiar with the discussions, the United States is preparing to convene talks between senior Somali government officials and opposition leaders at the heavily fortified Halane compound in Mogadishu, home to foreign embassies, international agencies and security missions. The meeting, expected on May 13, is intended to break the deadlock over Somalia’s stalled electoral process and prevent a widening confrontation after May 15.

The talks are expected to bring together President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre on behalf of the Somali federal government, while the opposition Somali Future Council is expected to be represented by former President Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and Puntland leader Said Abdullahi Deni.

Meanwhile, the opposition is also seeking to consolidate support through clan mobilization, a potent force in Somali politics. Organizers are planning a major gathering of the Hawiye clan at Moalim Nur Mosque in Mogadishu, where traditional elders and influential figures from across the clan are expected to rally behind the opposition movement and strengthen its challenge to the incumbent Somali administration.

The convergence of political opposition, clan solidarity and growing public frustration has heightened fears that Somalia may be approaching another moment of rupture.

The specter haunting Mogadishu is the crisis of 2021, when a bitter dispute over term extensions triggered armed clashes between rival factions of the Somali security forces in the streets of the capital. At the time, forces loyal to then-President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmaajo confronted units aligned with opposition leaders, among them Hassan Sheikh Mohamud himself. The fighting fractured Somali security institutions, displaced civilians and exposed the fragility of Somalia’s political order.

Now, with the president’s mandate nearing its end and negotiations still unresolved, many Somalis fear history may again be inching toward repetition.

Across Mogadishu, political maneuvering has intensified by the day. Government allies insist the administration remains committed to stability and continuity, while opposition figures accuse it of preparing to cling to power beyond its constitutional mandate. In tea shops, military barracks and crowded markets across Somalia’s capital, conversations increasingly revolve around a single unsettling question: whether Somalia’s leaders can step back from confrontation before Mogadishu once again becomes the battleground for a struggle over power.

Contact us: info@somaliguardian.com