Is Somalia’s president losing support as key allies abandon his camp?
MOGADISHU (Somaliguardian) – Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is confronting a rapid and highly consequential unraveling of his political coalition, as a string of influential allies abandon his camp in the final stretch of his term – a moment many analysts say could redefine the country’s immediate political trajectory. What began as isolated departures has, […]
Black News 
MOGADISHU (Somaliguardian) – Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud is confronting a rapid and highly consequential unraveling of his political coalition, as a string of influential allies abandon his camp in the final stretch of his term – a moment many analysts say could redefine the country’s immediate political trajectory.
What began as isolated departures has, in recent weeks, evolved into a steady exodus of figures who were once central to Mohamud’s 2022 re-election victory. The symbolism is difficult to ignore: a political machine that once projected breadth and inclusivity now appears to be thinning at its core.
During that campaign, Mohamud brushed aside claims that his political “train” had reached capacity, arguing instead that it was expansive enough to carry all who wished to join. Today, that metaphor has taken on a different meaning. Rather than struggling to board, key allies are stepping off – an indication, critics argue, that the coalition may have failed to sustain even its earliest supporters.
The first major rupture came with Abdiasis Laftagaren, the ousted Southwest state leader and deputy head of the ruling party, whose departure signaled early discontent within senior ranks. He was soon followed by Abdirahman Odwa, the party’s secretary-general, along with other officials. The exits quickly gained momentum: former intelligence chief Abdullahi Mohamed Sanbalolshe, longtime ally Abdullahi Mohamed Nur, and former Mogadishu mayor Yusuf Jimale Madale each severed ties with the president’s inner circle.
Individually, these figures carry weight. Collectively, they represent a significant political shift.
Many of those now defecting had backed Mohamud’s return to power with expectations of advancing their own political agendas. Observers say those ambitions were left largely unfulfilled, as the president resisted opening the political space they had anticipated in exchange for their support. Their departure reflects not only personal calculations, but also a broader reassessment of where power may be heading.
For Mohamud, a fragmented opposition has long been a strategic advantage, potentially allowing him to extend his grip on power without the pressure of a fully inclusive and broadly agreed electoral process. In recent years, he has worked to divide rival factions and successfully attracted some opposition figures into his camp, including former parliamentary speakers.
Now, that equation appears to be shifting.
The latest wave of defections cuts against the president’s strategy in a critical way. Those leaving are widely regarded as more politically influential than the figures previously drawn into his orbit. Many come from powerful Hawiye sub-clans with deep-rooted influence in Mogadishu and neighboring regions, amplifying the potential impact of their exit on the balance of power.
In Somalia’s political tradition, it is not unusual for alliances to shift as elections approach. Politicians often distance themselves from incumbents when they sense vulnerability, seeking to reposition ahead of what they perceive as a turning tide. What sets this moment apart is its timing: these defections are unfolding with roughly two weeks still remaining in the president’s term – far earlier than such realignments typically intensify.
The expectation in Mogadishu is that more departures may follow.
At the same time, opposition groups are moving quickly to capitalize on the moment, absorbing experienced and recognizable figures into their ranks. Their objective is becoming clearer: to mount a credible challenge that could either force the president from office or compel a consensus on an electoral process before his mandate expires.
The coming days are likely to be decisive.
For Mohamud, the challenge is no longer simply managing dissent but containing a narrative that his coalition is weakening at a critical juncture. For the opposition, the opportunity lies in transforming momentum into a unified front strong enough to reshape the political landscape.
Whether this moment marks a temporary period of instability or the beginning of a deeper political realignment remains uncertain. What is clear is that Somalia’s political center of gravity is shifting — and quickly.
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