Agricultural production under pressure

If the situation persists, a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—a vital maritime corridor—could disrupt African agriculture. According to agricultural development specialist Chabi Yayi, this reliance raises concerns that extend beyond the current crisis.

Over the past few decades, global agricultural markets have become increasingly interdependent, making food systems particularly vulnerable to geopolitical shocks. Among strategic regions, the Persian Gulf plays a central role in the production and export of essential energy resources, notably natural gas, the main input in the manufacture of nitrogen fertilisers. Countries such as Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Iran thus play a decisive role in the global supply of fertilisers.

However, since 28 February 2026, this region has become the scene of a conflict pitting the United States and Israel against Iran. The Iranian regime retaliated by bombing neighbouring states allied with the United States (Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, etc.) and by blocking traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint through which a significant proportion of the global trade in hydrocarbons and gas passes. This response has caused energy prices to soar and a significant slowdown in maritime traffic. It is worth noting that 20 million barrels of oil passed through this strait every day before the conflict began, whilst 20% of global gas trade and 30% of the world’s fertiliser exports used this route.

These disruptions have a direct impact on the fertiliser market, whose production is heavily dependent on natural gas and international supply chains. In this context, Africa appears particularly vulnerable. Indeed, many African countries rely heavily on imports of nitrogen fertilisers (urea, ammonium nitrate, NPK fertilisers, etc.) to increase crop yields, improve agricultural production and thus ensure the continent’s food self-sufficiency.

Nitrogen fertilisers are fertilisers that provide plants with nitrogen, a nutrient essential for their growth. Natural gas is the main raw material used to produce ammonia, a key component of nitrogen fertilisers.

Yields affected

In March 2026, the Dutch TTF futures contract, the European benchmark for gas, surged by more than 23% to reach €59.445 per megawatt-hour. This rise in gas prices is driving up fertiliser production costs, as their manufacture relies heavily on this energy source.

During its latest tender on 15 April, Indian Potash Ltd, one of India’s largest urea importers, received bids of around $1,000 per tonne – almost double the $508 recorded two months earlier – against a backdrop of disruptions linked to the conflict in the Middle East, whilst India, one of the world’s largest urea importers, remains heavily dependent on international markets.

An FAO report, Global agrifood implications of the 2026 conflict in the Middle East, published in March, indicates a likely 20% rise in fertiliser prices by the end of the first half of the year if the conflict persists. This could trigger a series of consequences, notably a rise in agri-food prices exacerbated by inflation in sea freight costs and insurance premiums. This rise in fertiliser prices would also result in reduced use of inputs by producers in sub-Saharan Africa, where fertiliser use is already very low (10 to 18 kg/ha on average, compared to over 90 kg/ha globally). This situation will further limit agricultural yields and lead to a decline in production as well as farmers’ incomes.

Similarly, there are fears that the budget deficits of sub-Saharan African countries will widen, as these nations import fertilisers every season for crops such as cotton, cashews and maize, which is a major challenge. Faced with rising prices, governments will generally be forced to subsidise fertilisers to make them affordable for producers.

Bucking this wave of pessimism, Morocco is sending out a positive signal. On 16 April, OCP Group raised $1.5 billion via an international hybrid bond issue, a first in dollars for the group and for an African company.

The transaction was a resounding success despite the difficult context: the order book reached nearly $7 billion, representing a 4.6-fold oversubscription.

Preparing for the future

Countries such as Egypt and Algeria could also fare well: Egypt produces more than 6 to 7 million tonnes of urea per year and exports a large proportion of it, whilst Algeria, buoyed by its substantial gas reserves, has a production capacity exceeding 3 million tonnes, enabling it to benefit from rising prices on international markets. That said, countries such as Benin will be little affected by this crisis as they ordered their fertiliser stocks as early as the end of 2025.

So, how can we escape this inevitability and these recurring episodes that demonstrate the fragility of our agricultural production systems on the African continent?

In the short term, only diplomatic efforts will enable us to find a way out of this conflict, as developing new trade routes within such a short timeframe appears to be unrealistic.

In the medium term, our leaders must work to reduce the exposure of our agriculture to these exogenous shocks, which recur in a fragmented and multipolar world. On 11 March, the International Energy Agency announced a coordinated release of approximately 400 million barrels from strategic oil reserves, the largest operation of its kind in its history.

Unfortunately, there is no mechanism at the African or regional level in the field of fertilisers. At the regional level, it is becoming vital that organisations such as ECOWAS, through the Regional Agency for Agriculture and Food (ARAA), can build up strategic fertiliser reserves for member countries in case of need.

Better resilience to shocks

More generally, the increasing frequency of these shocks should also prompt us to question our productivity-focused model, which no longer meets the standards of sustainable agriculture. The urgent priority is to develop local biofertiliser industries and invest in research to develop plant varieties that require less fertiliser.

On 19 May, the European Commission will present a ‘fertiliser action plan’ to reduce dependence on Russian imports, encourage local production, promote organic fertilisers and support farmers in the face of high prices. We could, at a continental level, draw inspiration from these measures to implement a coordinated programme aimed at reducing our exposure to external shocks.

In the coming weeks, as inputs are distributed, the situation for producers should become clearer. Although some countries (such as Benin) have already ordered a large proportion of the fertilisers to be used at the start of the 2026 agricultural season, others are already exposed to rising prices, such as Kenya, Uganda and South Africa (according to the International Trading Center). The situation could be particularly difficult for those who need to source supplies for immediate delivery, especially at spot market prices, where transactions are for immediate delivery.

Chabi Yayi is a Beninese agricultural entrepreneur and an expert in agri-food project development. In Benin, he chairs a cooperative of agricultural producers and is a member of several umbrella organisations in the soya and cassava sectors.

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