South African credit growth slows in April

South African private sector credit extension (PSCE) growth slowed to 9.2% year-on-year in April from 10.5% year-on-year in February. The February 2026 growth was the strongest since February 2009.

The South African Reserve Bank data showed that some of the February growth was due to the volatile bills and investments category. This jumped by 33.9% year-on-year in February after a 21.7% year-on-year gain in January.

The total loans and advances excluding bills and investments category saw growth of 8.76% year-on-year in February from 7.76% year-on-year in January.

In April, the investment sector growth slowed to 16.3% year-on-year, while the category excluding investment saw an 8.7% year-on-year increase.

Household and corporate demand

Household credit demand, which accounts for 47.1% of total loans and advances, rose to 4.6% year-on-year in April from 4.5% year-on-year in March. In February the increase was 4.3% year-on-year in from 4.0% year-on-year in January.

On the other hand, corporate demand accelerated to more than three times the consumer inflation rate of 4.0% year-on-year. Corporate demand growth was 12.5% year-on-year in April from 10.2% year-on-year in March.

General loans, which are the easiest to obtain, jumped to a 19.1% year-on-year increase in April from a 14.0% year-on-year gain in March.

This category has historically been used to finance capital spending. In March and April it may have been used to boost inventories ahead of expected price increases.

This boosted South African credit growth in April.

Pre-Iran war confidence surveys

Both the business and consumer confidence surveys conducted by the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) in the first quarter 2026 showed an improvement.

The business confidence index (BCI) improved to 47 in the first quarter 2026 from 44 in the fourth quarter 2025 and 39 in the third quarter 2025.

The BCI now stands six points above its long-term average of 41 and a large 20 points above the post-COVID low reached in the third quarter 2023. If the post-Covid bounce of the second quarter 2021 to 50 is excluded, then the first quarter 2026 reading is the highest since 2015.

The consumer confidence index rose to -7 in the first quarter 2026 from -9 in the fourth quarter 2025 and -13 in the third quarter 2025.

The confidence levels of high-income households , which earn more than R20 000 per month, drove the rise in the first quarter 2026. The index for this income group rose to -4 in the first quarter from -12 in the fourth quarter. There were improvements in all three sub-indices for high-income consumers.

Notably, the substantial improvement to 14 from 4 in the outlook for their household finances was remarkable. This is now at the highest level since the pre-pandemic second quarter 2019.

Unfortunately, high-income consumers were the only income group that registered an improvement in their rating of the present time to buy durable goods.

April PMIs

The Bureau for Economic Research (BER) Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) manufacturing index rose to 52.6 in April from 49.0 in March and 47.4 in February. This was the first time since September 2025 that the Bureau for Economic Research (BER) PMI rose above the neutral 50-point mark.

The April improvement was due to a rebound in both business activity and new sales orders. This may be due to front-loading of demand ahead of expected price increases and supply disruptions.

The S&P private sector PMI rose to 51,6 in April from 50,8 in March after being steady at 50,0 in February and January.

The April 2026 reading was its best level since August 2022.