Why are fuel prices not back to normal in Zimbabwe despite global oil prices reverting to pre-war levels?

Tendai Ruben Mbofana

The recent global energy market trends present a glaring paradox that the long-suffering people of Zimbabwe are forced to confront daily at the fuel pumps. 

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Following a dramatic monthly reduction in June 2026, international oil prices have effectively erased the geopolitical risk premium sparked by the recent U.S.-Iran conflict in the Middle East. 

As diplomatic breakthroughs reopen critical maritime chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf exports recover to 75 percent of their pre-war averages, the global benchmarks have come crashing down. 

Brent crude and WTI have tumbled by roughly 20 percent this month alone, landing comfortably back into the pre-war territory of $72 and $69 a barrel respectively—matching the baselines seen before the outbreak of hostilities in February.

Yet, as the rest of the world experiences a tangible reprieve from inflationary pressures, the domestic pricing structure in Zimbabwe remains stubbornly frozen in a high-cost time capsule. 

The Zimbabwe Energy Regulatory Authority recently adjusted prices to nearly $1.98 per litre for E20 petrol and $1.99 for diesel. 

For the ordinary motorist, commuter, and manufacturer, this stubborn refusal of prices to drop feels like a calculated betrayal. 

Before the war began, petrol retailed at approximately $1.51 per litre. 

Today, despite international crude returning to the exact same baselines, Zimbabweans are paying a massive premium of nearly 50 cents more per litre. 

This discrepancy cannot be blamed on the war, nor can it be excused by external supply chain shocks. 

It is a direct consequence of predatory domestic fiscal policies and uncompetitive statutory mandates.

To understand why our fuel has not returned to normal, one must look at how the state weaponized a global crisis for domestic revenue collection. 

When the war in the Middle East broke out and international landing costs naturally surged, the government used the ensuing chaos as a shield to permanently restructure domestic fuel taxes. 

Under the cover of global inflation, the Treasury aggressively hiked levies and duties, adding over 33 cents of pure domestic tax burden per litre of petrol blend. 

Now that the international market has corrected itself and crude prices have plummeted, these opportunistic tax increases have not been repealed. 

Instead, they have been quietly institutionalized into the pricing formula. 

The raw, free-on-board landing cost of fuel has dropped significantly, but the state’s fixed take per litre remains bloated, effectively setting an artificial floor below which local prices are legally not allowed to fall.

This fiscal extraction is compounded by the counterproductive domestic blending mandates that govern our fuel sector. 

When the nation was under an E15 mandate, the promise was that local ethanol production would cushion consumers against international shocks. 

Instead, the recent escalation to an E20 mandate—forcing a 20 percent local ethanol blend—has backfired spectacularly on the consumer. 

The domestic production of absolute ethanol is treated as a protected monopoly, with pricing that remains completely insulated from global market realities. 

When global oil decrease, the 80 percent unleaded portion of our fuel gets cheaper, but the 20 percent local ethanol portion remains stubbornly and artificially inflated. 

By forcing oil companies to purchase a larger share of this uncompetitive domestic component, the government has ensured that any savings realized from falling international crude prices are heavily diluted before they ever reach the pump.

The absurdity of Zimbabwe’s current pricing regime becomes undeniable when contrasted with our regional neighbors. 

As a landlocked country, Zimbabwe often blames high costs on the logistics of the Beira-to-Feruka pipeline and shipping distances. 

However, our immediate neighbors—who navigate the exact same landlocked vulnerabilities and global supply chains—are currently passing the benefits of the international price collapse directly to their citizens. 

Petrol in Zambia is retailing around $1.54, Botswana sits at $1.53, and Mozambique is at $1.47. 

These countries are successfully returning to their pre-war economic realities because their governments have not chosen to bleed their productive sectors dry through extractive fuel taxation and extortionist blending.

The economic implications for Zimbabwe are devastating. 

High fuel prices act as a regressive tax on every single citizen, driving up the cost of basic commodities, manufacturing, and public transport in an already fragile economy. 

By keeping fuel prices artificially pegged near the $2.00 mark while the rest of the region enjoys a relief, the authorities are systematically dismantling local industrial competitiveness and fueling a domestic cost-of-living crisis. 

The current pricing structure proves that the extra 47 cents paid at the pump is no longer a reflection of geopolitical conflict or global scarcity. 

It is a domestic penalty imposed by a fiscal regime that refuses to let go of crisis-era windfall taxes, leaving Zimbabweans to pay war-time prices in a post-war market.

• Tendai Ruben Mbofana is a social justice advocate and writer. To directly receive his articles please join his WhatsApp Channel on: https://whatsapp.com/channel/0029VaqprWCIyPtRnKpkHe08