Water: The strategic resource of the 21st century

As climate pressures intensify across North Africa, water is emerging as a defining question of economic development, food security and national sovereignty. Slim Othmani argues that the Maghreb must begin treating water not as a technical issue, but as a strategic asset that will shape its future prosperity.

In 2022, convinced that water would become one of the defining strategic challenges of the 21st century, I launched, together with several partners, a project called ANZAR, named after the Berber god of rain and water.

The ambition was simple: to bring together experts, academics, policymakers and business leaders to explore water management, hydro-diplomacy and the common challenges facing the Maghreb. The initiative sought to encourage regional cooperation on water infrastructure, resource governance and the prevention of future water-related tensions.

The project never materialised.

Funding proved difficult to secure, but the deeper problem was a lack of political urgency. At the time, energy, security and economic concerns dominated the agenda. Water was still viewed largely as a technical issue for specialists rather than a matter of national sovereignty.

Four years later, the context has changed dramatically.

Droughts are becoming more frequent, competition among agricultural users is intensifying, desalination costs continue to rise and the effects of climate change are becoming increasingly visible. Water has moved from the margins of policy discussions to the centre of public debate.

Although this article focuses primarily on Algeria, Tunisia and Libya, the issue extends far beyond the Maghreb. From Southern Europe to North America, from Australia to the Middle East and across Sub-Saharan Africa, water is increasingly shaping food security, economic competitiveness, territorial development and national resilience.

This raises a fundamental question: have we underestimated the strategic value of water?

For decades, the Maghreb’s conception of power has been built around hydrocarbons. Yet while energy can increasingly be generated from a growing range of sources, water remains irreplaceable.

Libya offers a particularly striking example.

Discussion of the country almost invariably centres on its vast oil reserves. Far less attention is paid to its enormous fossil water reserves, among the largest in the world. In an era of growing water scarcity, it is no longer unreasonable to ask whether these reserves could one day prove as strategically important as Libya’s hydrocarbons.

This is not merely a theoretical question. Economic history shows that the value of a resource depends not only on its usefulness but also on its scarcity. No economy, agricultural system or society can function sustainably without reliable access to water.

An equally important point is often overlooked. Virtually every strategic resource depends on water. Oil and gas extraction, mining, rare earth processing and phosphate production all require substantial volumes of water throughout their value chains.

Water is therefore more than another strategic commodity. It is the prerequisite for exploiting many other strategic resources. For decades, hydrocarbons and minerals have been regarded as the foundations of economic power. Yet without secure water supplies, their development becomes more costly, more constrained and, in some cases, impossible.

Water is, in effect, the resource behind all resources.

Tunisia presents a different but equally important challenge. Many Tunisians look to the country’s southern regions and ask why extensive deep groundwater reserves are not being mobilised more aggressively to support economic development. The conventional response points to the fossil and non-renewable nature of these aquifers.

While scientifically valid, that argument deserves closer examination. Recent research into Saharan aquifers has provided a more nuanced understanding of their recharge mechanisms and long-term dynamics.

The question is not whether these reserves are finite. They are.

Rather, the challenge is determining whether carefully planned and responsibly managed use of these resources could support regional development without compromising the interests of future generations. Humanity routinely exploits non-renewable resources. The objective has rarely been complete preservation, but rather the search for a sustainable balance between present needs and future stewardship.

Algeria offers a third perspective.

Long considered less vulnerable because of its energy wealth and investment capacity, the country has increasingly elevated water security to the level of a national strategic priority. Recurrent droughts, declining reservoir levels and rising agricultural, industrial and domestic demand have prompted authorities to invest heavily in seawater desalination, now a central pillar of Algeria’s water strategy.

This marks an important shift in thinking. Water is no longer viewed simply as a management issue but as a strategic concern on a par with energy security, food security and national security.

Yet desalination alone cannot provide a complete solution. Over the longer term, demand management, wastewater reuse, reductions in network losses and more effective groundwater governance will be equally important.

Ultimately, Algeria, Tunisia and Libya face the same challenge. Their future development models will depend as much on their ability to manage water sustainably as on their capacity to exploit energy resources.

The issue also transcends national borders. The major Saharan aquifers constitute a shared resource. The North Western Sahara Aquifer System links Algeria, Tunisia and Libya, making cooperation, transparency and hydro-diplomacy increasingly important.

It is striking that the Maghreb has often thought collectively about energy infrastructure, trade and security, yet rarely about its shared water future. This may prove to be a costly oversight. Water is rapidly becoming one of the key determinants of economic resilience, social stability and national power.

Oil can generate energy. Phosphate can enrich soils. Minerals can fuel industrial development. Yet all depend on water to be extracted, processed and transformed into economic value.

When we conceived the ANZAR project in 2022, our objective was to encourage recognition of water as a major geopolitical issue. Four years later, events appear to have validated that vision.

Water has moved beyond the realm of technical management and into the domains of sovereignty, national security, economic development and regional cooperation. The failure of the ANZAR project may therefore not have been the failure of an idea. It may simply have been the fate of an idea whose time had not yet come.

The post Water: The strategic resource of the 21st century appeared first on New African Magazine.