Despite lower oil prices after the Strait of Hormuz crisis, Africa’s costliest fuel markets still charge over $3.00 per litre

Despite lower oil prices following the easing of tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, fuel costs in some of Africa's most expensive markets remain stubbornly high, with motorists still paying more than $3.00 per litre.

• Global oil prices have fallen after tensions eased in the Strait of Hormuz, but fuel prices in several African countries remain stubbornly high.
• Retail fuel costs in Africa are mainly driven by import dependence, weak local currencies, and slow price adjustment mechanisms rather than just global crude prices.
• Countries like Nigeria, Malawi, Zimbabwe, Rwanda, and Senegal continue to experience some of the continent's highest fuel costs.
• Domestic factors, such as limited refining capability and volatile exchange rates, prevent savings from cheaper crude oil from reaching African consumers.

Global crude oil markets have eased after Brent fell back below $78 per barrel, reversing earlier spikes triggered by geopolitical tensions in the US–Iran conflict that at one point pushed prices close to $120 per barrel.

The retreat reflects improving shipping conditions in the Strait of Hormuz following an interim peace agreement between Washington and Tehran.

Before the crisis, Brent traded closer to $70 per barrel, suggesting markets are gradually returning to pre-conflict levels. However, the decline has not translated into meaningful relief for fuel consumers across Africa.

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Across several markets, retail fuel prices remain elevated, driven by structural constraints rather than global crude trends alone.

Business Insider reports that fuel prices in the United States have eased in recent weeks but remain well above pre-conflict levels.

Data from the American Automobile Association shows the national average gas price at $3.99 per gallon, with California at $5.64 and Indiana at $3.39.

Prices rose from below $3 per gallon in February after the US–Iran conflict began, peaking above $4.50 in May. Since then, they have fallen by more than $0.50 per gallon, with the national average briefly dropping below $4 for the first time since March.

Despite the decline, fuel prices remain about one-third higher than pre-conflict levels of $2.98 per gallon, highlighting the slow pass-through of global oil relief to consumers.

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A market survey by The Guardian Nigeria found that petrol was still selling for between ₦1,317 and ₦1,336 per litre (about $0.98) at filling stations in Nigeria's capital city - Abuja, despite recent downward adjustments at the refinery level.

When contacted for comment by The Guardian, the President of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Abubakar Maigandi, declined to elaborate on the issue, saying only that he was in a meeting.

Countries such as Malawi, Zimbabwe, Rwanda and Senegal continue to rank among Africa’s higher-cost fuel markets, with prices ranging from about $1.58 to $3.83 per litre depending on local conditions, currency strength and import dependence.

Domestic pressures keep fuel costs elevated across Africa

The disconnect between global crude oil prices and retail fuel costs is evident across multiple African markets, where domestic factors continue to outweigh international oil trends.

Nigeria offers one of the clearest examples. After briefly easing in late 2025, when increased competition and improved supply conditions pushed ex-depot petrol prices to around ₦699 per litre, prices reversed sharply in early 2026.

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By March, petrol had surged past ₦1,100 per litre and has since climbed to about ₦1,336 per litre (about $0.98), highlighting how domestic fuel costs can diverge from movements in global crude markets.

Elsewhere on the continent, the pressure is reflected in fuel price data.

Malawi recorded the steepest increase among surveyed countries, with fuel prices rising from $2.02 per litre in January to $3.83 per litre in May. Zimbabwe also experienced a significant jump, climbing from $1.57 to $2.08 per litre over the same period.

In Senegal, fuel prices edged higher from $1.64 to $1.65 per litre, while the Central African Republic remained relatively stable, moving from $1.87 to $1.88 per litre. Seychelles saw prices increase from $1.39 to $1.63 per litre, reflecting persistent import and logistics costs.

New entrants into Africa's most expensive fuel markets further illustrate the trend. Cabo Verde, Rwanda, Sierra Leone and Tanzania all ranked among the continent's top 10 costliest fuel markets in May, with pump prices ranging from $1.59 to $2.01 per litre.

Analysts attribute these trends to a combination of currency weakness, import dependence, freight and refining costs, and domestic pricing structures. In many African countries, these factors have become more influential than crude oil prices alone, limiting the extent to which consumers benefit when global oil markets soften.

Why Africa is not seeing full pass-through of oil relief

Across the continent, three structural factors continue to drive the disconnect between falling global crude prices and stubbornly high retail fuel costs.

First is import dependence. Many African economies still rely heavily on imported refined petroleum products due to limited domestic refining capacity. This exposes domestic markets not only to crude oil prices, but also to global refining margins, freight costs, and shipping insurance - costs that do not necessarily fall in tandem with crude.

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Second is currency weakness. Depreciating local currencies against the US dollar continue to amplify fuel import costs. As a result, even when Brent crude retreats from crisis highs, the local cost of fuel often remains elevated because petroleum is priced in dollars along the supply chain.

Third is pricing structure and adjustment lag. In deregulated or semi-regulated markets, retail fuel prices tend to rise quickly during oil shocks but adjust downward more slowly when global prices fall. This creates a “sticky downward” pricing pattern that delays or dilutes consumer relief.

In Nigeria, this dynamic is especially visible, where post-subsidy pricing means pump rates are now closely tied to import parity economics and exchange rate movements rather than crude benchmarks alone.

As a result, even though global oil prices have eased from the peaks reached during the Strait of Hormuz crisis, retail fuel prices across much of Africa have remained elevated, reflecting earlier cost shocks and persistent domestic pressures.

The Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN) has urged refiners, depot owners and importers to immediately reduce fuel prices in line with the recent decline in global crude oil prices.

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PETROAN President, Billy Gillis-Harry, said local pricing should reflect global market conditions.

“Brent crude has fallen to approximately $77 to $78 per barrel following the ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran and expectations that oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz will gradually normalise,” he said in a statement signed by PETROAN spokesperson Joseph Obele.

Analysts say this pattern suggests that the key constraint is no longer just global oil direction, but the speed and structure of domestic price transmission. Until currency stability improves and import dependence is reduced, fuel markets are likely to remain only partially responsive to global oil relief.

In the near term, this means African consumers are unlikely to see immediate or proportional reductions at the pump, even if Brent remains below recent crisis highs.