Why a $4 billion deal in Africa’s third-largest gold producing nation is facing pushback from China

A $4 billion Chinese deal targeting a gold mining company in Mali is facing growing uncertainty as regulators in Beijing raise concerns over valuation and geopolitical risk.

• Chinese regulators are questioning a $4 billion acquisition of Mali-based gold miner Allied Gold by Zijin Gold International due to concerns over valuation and political risk.
• China’s National Development and Reform Commission is reviewing the deal, worried about the high purchase price and Mali’s unstable geopolitical environment.
• The deal was initially seen as a bold move amid record gold prices, but falling bullion prices have cooled investor sentiment.
• Instability in Mali, marked by violence and government interventions in the mining sector, is raising alarm among investors and regulators.

Beijing’s regulators are casting doubt over a $4 billion Chinese deal to take over a gold mining company in Mali, Africa’s third-largest gold producer, raising concerns about valuation and political risk.

The move comes as China’s National Development and Reform Commission reviews Zijin Gold International’s proposed acquisition of Allied Gold, with officials questioning whether the valuation is too high and whether exposure to Mali’s mining sector introduces unnecessary geopolitical risk.

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The regulatory headwinds have cast uncertainty over what would be the Hong Kong-listed firm’s first major deal since its IPO last autumn, according to the Financial Times.

The deal, agreed earlier this year, has already been viewed as a high-stakes bet on Africa’s gold industry at a time when bullion prices have surged to record levels, fuelling a wave of global mining mergers and acquisitions.

China’s National Development and Reform Commission has raised concerns over the valuation premium in the deal and the geopolitical risks tied to Allied’s operations in Mali, people familiar with the matter said.

The proposed acquisition, agreed in January at C$44 per share, was initially seen as a bold bet on Africa’s gold sector at a time when bullion prices surged above $5,500 per ounce. Prices have since eased to around $4,500/oz, cooling investor sentiment across the industry.

Mali risk factors weigh on investor sentiment

Allied’s key asset, the Sadiola mine, is located in Mali, a jurisdiction increasingly viewed as high-risk by global miners.

The country has faced violent attacks by separatist and jihadist groups, while its military government has detained foreign mining executives and renegotiated contracts with major operators including Barrick Gold and Resolute Mining.

Those developments have heightened concerns among regulators and investors about long-term operational stability in the country’s mining sector.

Meanwhile, Western mining companies continue to reduce exposure to higher-risk African jurisdictions, accelerating asset sales and portfolio restructuring. This retreat has created acquisition opportunities for Chinese miners, which are expanding overseas by targeting producing assets rather than greenfield developments.

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Chinese mining groups have been active in this shift. Rival Zijin Mining has built a growing footprint across Mali, Côte d’Ivoire and Ethiopia, highlighting the increasing role of Chinese capital in Africa’s gold industry.

The original deal deadline of May 29 has passed, with Allied’s shares trading at C$34.73 — well below the offer price - signalling growing market doubt over completion.

A spokesperson for Allied said both parties are still working toward closing the transaction, citing strong commercial logic. Zijin Gold International declined to comment.